The U.S. September non-farm payroll report, due October 2, is expected to show 90,000 new jobs, down significantly from August's 162,000. The key market focus is whether August data will be revised downward due to seasonal adjustment anomalies, with potential implications for Fed rate-hike expectations and bond market volatility.
U.S. President Trump stated the government may consider taking equity stakes in OpenAI and Anthropic, similar to its Intel investment, while ruling out nationalization of AI companies.
The US 30-year mortgage rate has climbed to 7.28%, its highest level since November 2023, while 15-year rates reached 6.6%. Elevated interest rates are dampening the real estate market, with existing home sales in August falling 2% month-over-month to an annualized 3.98 million units.
U.S. manufacturing accelerated in September with PMI hitting its highest level since May 2022, driven by surging new orders that prompted increased production, hiring, and order backlogs. Despite declining exports, safety stock demand supported growth, fueling market speculation about further Federal Reserve interest rate increases.
TS Lombard's Chief Economist Steven Blitz warns the Federal Reserve committed an "original sin" by easing monetary policy prematurely before inflation was fully suppressed, potentially driving the 10-year Treasury yield to 8%. He attributes this to loose fiscal and monetary policies combined with political pressure, arguing the political will to genuinely suppress inflation may not emerge until 2029.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced the creation of the Autonomous Combat Command to enhance military capabilities in drones, AI, and command systems. The Pentagon plans to double autonomous combat spending to $74 billion in its budget request.
The spread between U.S. CCC-rated corporate bonds and Treasuries has exceeded 1,000 basis points for the first time since the 2023 regional banking crisis, driven by economic uncertainty and high interest rate sensitivity among the riskiest issuers.
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook stated that U.S. inflation has remained above the 2% target for over five years and supports a 25 basis point rate hike in September to restore price stability. She noted that rural inflation exceeded urban inflation post-pandemic, driven by energy and housing costs.
SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said the agency will clarify on-chain financing rules using its existing authority, after Congress failed to pass the CLARITY Act in September. The SEC has already taken steps to support tokenized securities through recent guidance and FAQs.
Meta is applying for substantial U.S. research and development tax credits for its AI data centers, a strategy that reduced its taxes by nearly $4 billion last year. However, internal accountants and tax experts warn the classification of AI data centers as R&D projects may carry legal risks and is unusually aggressive.