Japan's trade deficit widened to 1.1 trillion yen in August as energy import costs surged due to high oil prices and the Iran conflict, with petroleum imports from the U.S. jumping over 1,000% year-on-year. Export growth slowed for the first time in six months but still beat expectations at 19.3%, driven by semiconductor equipment shipments to China and the U.S.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, highlighting economic successes including rising wages for lower-income Americans and sanctions against Iran. Congress is expected to question him on inflation, energy prices, interest rates, federal debt, and the administration's fiscal record.
Stock futures declined Tuesday as the 10-year Treasury yield surged above 5% for the first time since 2007, amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike this week and concerns about U.S.-Iran tensions fueling inflation. Rising Treasury yields and oil prices, coupled with a selloff in AI stocks following safety concerns, pressured equity markets globally.
The Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF (BWET) has surged 3,600% year-to-date, becoming the best-performing U.S. fund, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and supply chain disruptions drive record shipping costs. The Strait of Hormuz crisis, Houthi control of Yemen's Mocka port, and broader factors like tariffs and drought have created an unprecedented shortage of oil tankers, allowing shipping companies to command premium rates.
Consumer prices rose 3.4% in August while average hourly earnings increased just 3.1%, marking a renewed squeeze on purchasing power as inflation outpaces wage growth. Energy costs, particularly gasoline prices, are the primary driver of inflation, and economists warn the gap may persist for years as geopolitical pressures continue.
U.S. crude oil prices surged to $102 per barrel this week, their highest level since May, driven by escalating Middle East conflict and a potential shift in China's demand. China's reduction of crude imports during the Iran war has been a key factor suppressing prices, but refiners are now incentivized to increase purchases due to high profit margins, potentially pushing oil toward wartime highs of $112.95 if China sustains higher buying levels.
Oil prices fell 2-3% on Friday after surging above $100 a barrel, with Brent crude at $103.78 and WTI at $99.23, though both remain on track for weekly gains of around 8-9%. Geopolitical tensions over Iran conflict, Middle East instability, and concerns about Saudi oil output and Red Sea shipping are driving market volatility, though analysts debate whether current supply deficits are structural or temporary.
U.S. diesel prices reached a record $6 per gallon on Friday, driven by supply disruptions from the Ukraine and Iran wars, with crude oil futures surging above $100 per barrel. The spike is raising transportation and food costs across the economy, as diesel fuels trucks, trains, ships, and farm machinery, with Americans spending roughly $700 million more daily on fuel than a year ago.
Stock futures rose modestly Friday ahead of August's consumer price index report, as markets digest weak Thursday trading and elevated oil prices linked to U.S.-Iran tensions. Asia-Pacific indices fell across the board, with South Korea's Kospi and Japan's Nikkei leading declines, while oil surged past $100 per barrel and bond yields hit their highest levels since mid-2023.
Apple launched its first foldable iPhone, prompting Samsung to mock the late entry with sarcastic social media posts. Markets focused on crude oil surging above $100 a barrel amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, raising odds of Fed rate hikes, while President Trump's proposal for $5,000 checks to Americans drew bipartisan criticism over its $1.2 trillion cost.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate exceeded 7% for the first time since May 2025, driven by rising Treasury yields linked to surging oil prices and geopolitical tensions. The increase, which has accelerated since the start of the Iran war, raises monthly payments significantly for homebuyers and pressures the homebuilding sector.
Market traders have raised the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike next week to 70%, driven by rising wholesale prices, crude oil exceeding $100 per barrel, and persistent inflation concerns. Additional rate increases before year-end are now priced at roughly 60% odds as inflation dynamics remain stubborn despite central bank efforts.
The European Central Bank raised its key deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, a widely expected move amid elevated inflation driven by Middle East energy disruptions. Uncertainty about the U.S.-Iran conflict and its duration clouds the outlook for future rate decisions, with market watchers divided on whether additional hikes will follow.
Stock futures edged higher Thursday as traders awaited the producer price index report on wholesale inflation, following a three-day decline in major indices. Rising oil prices amid U.S.-Iran tensions and elevated Treasury yields pressured markets, with crude futures reaching their highest settlement prices since May.
Apple released its first foldable iPhone (iPhone Duo) starting at $1,999, alongside new iPhone 18 models and other devices, with social media focusing on the screen crease. The U.S. Treasury tripled bond buyback operations to $6 billion to stabilize markets amid rising yields and oil prices. Trump's energy portfolio gained $1.5 million as oil prices surged following escalating Iran conflict, though no evidence suggests policy was influenced by his financial interests.
Gold rose 1.1% to $4,401.09 per ounce, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, as investors awaited key inflation data to gauge the Federal Reserve's policy direction. Middle East tensions drove oil prices above $100 per barrel, while traders priced a 60% chance of an interest rate hike at next week's central bank meeting.
Apple launches its first foldable iPhone today with new CEO John Ternus debuting, while Brent crude surpasses $100 per barrel amid escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions. Trump signed proclamations banning Canadian imports and sanctioning Iranian airlines as part of broader economic measures, with his oil holdings gaining millions from the conflict.
U.S. and Iran escalate military conflict with strikes on oil tankers and sanctions on airlines, pushing crude prices toward $100 per barrel and threatening global energy supplies. Meanwhile, Canada imposes retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, and tech companies Qualcomm and Corning announce major AI infrastructure partnerships that lift semiconductor stocks.
China's consumer and wholesale inflation rebounded in August, with producer prices rising 3.8% and consumer prices up 0.8% year-over-year, driven mainly by higher global commodity costs and tech demand rather than genuine domestic consumption strength. Economists attribute the gains to favorable base effects and energy price surges linked to regional tensions, while underlying domestic demand remains weak with services and consumer goods inflation continuing to lag.
Oil prices surged as U.S.-Iran military tensions escalated, with the U.S. destroying Iranian tankers in retaliation for attacks on an American warship. Brent crude approached $100 a barrel, and analysts warn prices could exceed $120 if Middle East shipping disruptions worsen over coming months.