Treasury yields exceeded 5%, far above the Congressional Budget Office's February forecasts of 4.1-4.4%, driven by a hot economy, rising geopolitical tensions, and competition for bond capital. Experts previously skeptical of debt concerns now warn that sustained elevated yields could push annual interest payments to $2.7 trillion by decade's end, potentially triggering a fiscal crisis.
Mortgage rates are expected to fluctuate between 5.9% and 6.3% over the next five years, driven primarily by 10-year Treasury yields which economists forecast will rise gradually from current levels to around 4.3% by 2030. The forecast combines expert predictions from Deloitte, Goldman Sachs, and the Congressional Budget Office with AI analysis, accounting for the typical 1.9-2.0 percentage point spread between Treasury yields and mortgage rates.