Micron Technology has secured ~$100 billion in take-or-pay contracts and $22 billion in customer deposits for HBM memory, yet can only fulfill half of AI customers' demand. HBM scarcity has become the primary bottleneck for NVIDIA accelerator shipments and the broader AI buildout. However, competitors Samsung, SK Hynix, and CXMT are expanding capacity, raising questions about whether this cycle will repeat past commodity supercycle patterns.