Hyperscaler return on incremental invested capital (ROIIC) peaked near 40% in Q1 2026 against an 8% cost of capital, with consensus expecting it to decline to 23% by Q3 2027 before recovering to 35% by 2030. Despite these strong returns far exceeding the cost of capital, modest monetary policy rate adjustments are unlikely to materially constrain AI investment decisions, suggesting tighter policy will impact other parts of the economy.