BNP Paribas forecasts 30-year Treasury yields will rise to 5.6% due to three factors: the Federal Reserve's rate-hike cycle increasing government interest payments by up to $168 billion annually, a widening budget deficit from tariff rollbacks and higher rates, and potential increased fiscal spending after midterm elections despite lower congressional collaboration. Rising long-term yields pressure stock valuations as investors reassess risk-free Treasury returns against equity earnings.