Treasury yields exceeded 5%, far above the Congressional Budget Office's February forecasts of 4.1-4.4%, driven by a hot economy, rising geopolitical tensions, and competition for bond capital. Experts previously skeptical of debt concerns now warn that sustained elevated yields could push annual interest payments to $2.7 trillion by decade's end, potentially triggering a fiscal crisis.
The 10-year Treasury yield has exceeded 5%, far surpassing Congressional Budget Office forecasts of 4.1–4.4%, driven by a hot economy, geopolitical tensions, high deficits, and competition for capital. Previously skeptical economists including Ed Yardeni and Jared Bernstein now warn of escalating debt risks and potential fiscal crisis if yields remain elevated.