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VOL. I·NO. 01
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2026
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  1. 001Hacker NewsSEP · 16English

    A backtest can pose a question its own data cannot answer

    A backtest of Connors and Alvarez's 2008 mean-reversion trading strategy on SPY from 1993–2026 found that no parameter variant beat buy-and-hold, and the strategy's low drawdown reflects low market exposure rather than skill. The analysis demonstrates that backtests can pose unanswerable questions within their own data and that adversarial review is essential to catch methodological errors that bias results.

    By CilantroCo