A randomized study of US H-2B visa lotteries shows that restricting low-skill foreign workers shrinks businesses without creating American jobs. Researchers found that firms denied visas simply became smaller rather than hiring domestic workers, suggesting low-skill immigrants and American workers are poor substitutes.
Article argues that H-1B, H-4 EAD, and OPT/STEM OPT visa programs reduce American wages, displace jobs, and limit housing availability. Claims approximately $109–121 billion in annual payroll flows to foreign workers instead of Americans, with 62.6% of FY2024 H-1B workers filed below local median wage levels, and an estimated 500,000 U.S. housing units occupied by visa holders.
Jobless claims dropped to 196,000, the lowest level since mid-July, indicating that layoffs remain rare and job security is strong for most Americans. The decline suggests the labor market is holding up despite economic headwinds, though job creation remains modest compared to post-pandemic levels.