Micron Technology has secured ~$100 billion in take-or-pay contracts and $22 billion in customer deposits for HBM memory, yet can only fulfill half of AI customers' demand. HBM scarcity has become the primary bottleneck for NVIDIA accelerator shipments and the broader AI buildout. However, competitors Samsung, SK Hynix, and CXMT are expanding capacity, raising questions about whether this cycle will repeat past commodity supercycle patterns.
Micron reported Q4 FY25 revenue of $11.32B and EPS of $3.03, with street expectations for Q4 FY26 reaching $50.8B revenue and $31 EPS, representing growth of 349% and 927% respectively. AI-driven HBM demand and supply constraints are fueling a memory supercycle, positioning Micron as a leading AI infrastructure beneficiary.