Stock futures rose modestly Friday ahead of September's jobs report, with S&P 500 futures up 0.26%. Treasury yields climbed to multiyear highs while oil prices surged over 4% following reports of a U.S. military buildup in the Middle East. Markets await nonfarm payrolls data expected to show 84,000 jobs added with unemployment steady at 4.1%.
Stablecoin issuers' holdings of U.S. Treasury bills could reach $400 billion by 2030 based on current growth trends, outpacing even Japan's acquisition rate since 2023. Meanwhile, global debt has surged by $10 trillion to a record $365 trillion over the past six months.
The author argues that the recent spike in long-term government bond yields globally is not driven by an unwinding of the Yen carry trade, as some theorize. Analysis of Japanese portfolio flows into US debt shows no correlation with the recent Treasury yield increases, suggesting instead that rising yields reflect concerns about fiscal policy mismanagement amid geopolitical uncertainty.
A trader warns that rising Treasury yields above 5.3%, spiking oil prices, and shrinking global liquidity are creating a hostile environment for risk assets and altcoins, forcing capital into defensive positions and tokenized real-world assets. Base's Cobalt upgrade introduces validity transactions and enhanced asset controls, positioning the blockchain infrastructure to capture institutional capital seeking yield-bearing alternatives as traditional finance costs surge.
Bitcoin Policy Institute released research alleging MSCI attempted to exclude companies holding Bitcoin treasuries from major stock indexes through ESG criteria, discovering internal project files labeled 'DATCOs' embedded in supposedly neutral methodology proposals. MSCI had previously warned about cryptocurrency exposure as an ESG concern in 2021, with CEO Henry Fernandez publicly championing strict ESG investing standards.