New report shows the economic toll of ICE raids

New report shows the economic toll of ICE raids

By Jasmine Garsd

Tuesday, September 8, 2026 • 4:17 PM EDT

Heard on All Things Considered

A new study shows that the widespread fear and isolation caused by the immigration crackdowns that began in early 2025 had a significant economic toll on Chicago commerce, draining over $1.26 billion from local businesses.

The report, published by the University of Illinois Chicago, used anonymous cellphone GPS data to track movement between immigrant and non-immigrant neighborhoods throughout Chicago's Cook County. Researchers found that the routine back-and-forth between these areas collapsed almost immediately after President Donald Trump took office on Jan. 20, 2025, amid rampant rumors and the subsequent sweeps that Chicago would be targeted for immediate Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids.

Professor Matt Wilson, a co-author of the study, noted how strongly the economic ripples were felt outside of immigrant communities in the area. The report estimates that decreased consumer mobility cost retail shops and restaurants in non-immigrant neighborhoods roughly $1.26 billion, while costing the state of Illinois an estimated $107 million in lost tax revenue.

"We see a 9% drop in retail and a 10% drop in restaurant visits, and it persisted for about a year," Wilson told NPR. "And it's not that it recovered after a year. People's behavior systematically changed after January 20, 2025." He says the city has yet to recover.

For small businesses, a sustained 10% drop in foot traffic business over the course of a year can be a serious financial hit. The new study challenges assumptions about immigrant community isolation, Wilson added. "I think a lot of people treat Latino and some immigrant communities as if they're insular and isolated," Wilson said. "But it's really that these communities are much more integrated into the broader economy, and they are making trips to faraway places in the county, routinely."

The intense fear that triggered these behavior shifts was palpable in the days surrounding the 2025 inauguration.

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"I have to go grocery shopping, but I haven't. What if ICE is there?" a Chicago waitress named Caridad told NPR at the time, requesting that her last name be withheld, for fear of being targeted. "People are more than afraid, they're panicking."

Since then, the administration's immigration crackdowns have resulted in hundreds of thousands of arrests nationwide. Today, the immigration detention population sits at a record high of approximately 65,000 people.

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The White House defended the aggressive enforcement strategy. In a statement to NPR, White House spokesperson Lauren Bis said, "Removing these criminals from the streets makes communities safer for business owners and customers. Nearly 70% of ICE arrests are of illegal aliens charged or convicted of a crime in the U.S."

However, ICE's own agency statistics show that roughly 70% of those currently detained have no criminal convictions.

The new report is part of a growing body of research confirming that large-scale immigration enforcement operations send severe economic shockwaves through broader local economies. A Brookings Institution report estimates estimates a roughly 1.7 percentage point decline in aggregate consumer spending in high-enforcement states

In Minneapolis, the city estimates total economic damage from ICE enforcement sweeps there at nearly $700 million, with small businesses in the city losing more than $81 million in revenue in January alone.

Transcript

SACHA PFEIFFER, HOST:

The Trump administration's nationwide immigration crackdown is well into its second year. Federal immigration agents have arrested hundreds of thousands of people since Inauguration Day. On any given day, about 65,000 people are sitting in immigration detention. That's a record. And about 70% of them have no criminal conviction. Now, new research quantifies how much these ICE arrest operations are costing local economies, and not just in immigrant neighborhoods. Here's NPR's Jasmine Garsd.

JASMINE GARSD, BYLINE: In the days after President Donald Trump took office on January 20, 2025, the mood in Chicago's Latino neighborhoods was tense. Rumors were running wild that this city was going to be the first to see ICE raids. A waitress NPR spoke to back then, named Caridad, requested that we not use her last name for fear of being targeted.

CARIDAD: (Speaking Spanish).

GARSD: "I have to go grocery shopping," she said, "but I haven't because what if ICE is there? People are more than afraid. They're panicking." A new study out today shows just how big an economic impact that panic and the ICE raids that followed had. The report by the University of Illinois Chicago used anonymous GPS data from cellphones to unpack the economic toll of ICE operations in 2025 throughout Chicago. The study tracked movement between immigrant neighborhoods and nonimmigrant neighborhoods in Chicago's Cook County. Professor Matt Wilson, a study co-author, says the usual back-and-forth between the two areas stopped almost immediately.

MATT WILSON: The flows from the high Latin American-born areas to the low Latin American-born areas collapsed after January 20.

GARSD: Wilson says it's remarkable how strongly the economic impact was felt outside those immigrant communities. Now, the report estimates that the raids cost retail and restaurants in nonimmigrant neighborhoods in the county about $1.26 billion, and it cost the state around $107 million in tax revenue.

WILSON: We see that 9% drop in retail and 10% drop in restaurant visits, and it persists for about a year. People's behavior systematically changed after January 20, 2025, and it never recovered.

GARSD: For a small business, a 10% drop over the course of a year can be a financial hit. In a statement to NPR, White House spokesperson Lauren Bis said, quote, "If there was any correlation between rampant illegal immigration and a good economy, Biden would have had a booming economy. Removing these criminals from the streets makes communities safer for business owners and customers." Wilson, the researcher, says the report underscores that no community is an island.

WILSON: I think a lot of people treat Latino and some immigrant communities as if they're insular and they're isolated. But it's really that these communities are much more integrated into the broader economy and they're making trips to faraway places in the county routinely.

GARSD: Several other studies have confirmed that ICE raids have sent economic shock waves throughout local economies in and well beyond immigrant neighborhoods. Jasmine Garsd, NPR News, New York.