# AI capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-30 08:46 UTC)
## @HenrikZeberg (Henrik Zeberg) · 09-30 08:07 · ♥71 ↻11 💬4 The Business Cycle Model has never created false signal.
It has normally been 1-3 months early before NBER Recession setting in.
The signal came in July 2026. Due to the extreme AI-Capex, the lead may be +3-5 months this time. But no more than that.
We are close!
More short-term indications are beginning to flash. I need 2 more .... then I will call the onset of the Recession - only to be recognized by NBER 9-12 months later.
Recessions can be forecasted real time - and they should. https://x.com/HenrikZeberg/status/2105207924997967987
## @momehx (Momeh) · 09-30 06:16 · ♥33 ↻0 💬42 VANGRID TRANSFORMS SPATIAL PHYSICAL TELEMETRY INTO PROGRAMMABLE ONCHAIN ASSETS
Physical AI faces a hard bottleneck: autonomous systems require continuous real-world geometry, yet the physical world lacks ground-level digital mapping. @vangrid_io bypasses centralized camera fleets by turning everyday mobile devices into decentralized edge sensor nodes, settling verified 3D assets on Base:
Real Onchain Adoption & Seed Capital -> $9M Seed Capital Secured: Closed a $9M seed round at a $90M valuation backed by HashKey Capital, Borderless Capital, Animoca Brands, https://t.co/ME4Ki7CztL Capital, Gate Labs, and Mapleblock. -> 1,024,000+ Verified Scans: Anchors over one million real-world visual captures directly to Base through continuous Merkle proofs. -> 423,000+ Active Edge Nodes: Mobilizes hundreds of thousands of active contributors recording ground-truth geometry worldwide. -> Direct USDC Settlement: Settles enterprise bounties transparently through smart contract escrows on Base. Contributor Rails & The $100K Rewards Hub -> $100,000 Rewards Pool: Distributes incentives to the top 300 network contributors via the Snag loyalty platform. -> Point Telemetry Credits (PTC): Converts active capture sessions and daily habit streaks into credits ahead of $VAN TGE. -> Grid Operator Multiplier: Users unlocking the Grid Operator badge secure an automatic 1.5x multiplier on active data points. -> Zero Capex Onboarding: Contributors capture real-world coordinates with standard Android phones without purchasing dedicated hardware rigs. Cryptographic Proof Over Blind Corporate Trust -> EAS Attestation Verification: Continuous verification through the Ethereum Attestation Service proves real-world presence without leaking raw visual feeds. -> Edge-Level Privacy Guard: Blurs personal faces and vehicle plates on local silicon before data leaves the contributor device. -> 3D Gaussian Splat Generation: Converts pedestrian video walks into dense spatial point clouds and volumetric digital assets for robotics models. -> Permissionless Spatial Rails: Builds an open, trustless spatial layer where autonomous systems and sovereign builders acquire real-world ground truth directly. https://x.com/momehx/status/2105180083946131848
## @trevornoren (Trevor Noren) · 09-29 17:47 · ♥34 ↻10 💬1 Torsten Slok: "Analysts covering tech expect the sector's operating cash flow to more than double to ~$2.4t by 2028, an increase of >$1.2t. Meanwhile, the analysts covering other sectors in the S&P 500, which are tech's customers, expect those companies to add much less operating cash flow. In other words, the tech silo is betting on a future in which demand for AI and tech services explodes, while the silos covering the companies that would pay for those services see a much more modest outlook. Both cannot be right at the same time. The bottom line is that either tech's customers will generate a lot more cash than their analysts expect, or tech's cash flow forecasts are too optimistic, which raises the question of who exactly will be writing all those checks to buy AI services."
This disconnect is core to what I dissect in my report on "The AI Trade" (https://t.co/wQQNniS2kj). Since ChatGPT's debut, prognosticators have made wild predictions about the rapidity with which AI would disrupt the status quo. For one, the WEF had predicted AI would replace 85m jobs globally by 2026. Yet, as I explore in the report, there is still no ‘statistically significant’ correlation between AI and unemployment figures. And there is little evidence AI is moving the profit margins of the S&P 493.
You dig deep into current enterprise adoption and the reasons for this are clear. The technology's weaknesses and cost equation alongside enterprise legacy operations are holding back utility. For just a few data points from the report that reflect this:
- There have now been 1,868 legal cases worldwide and 1,297 cases in the US in which “a party relied on [AI-]hallucinated content or material.” A vast majority of AI users do not fact-check AI. In February, Anthropic released its “AI Fluency Index” report, which studied 10,000 “anonymized conversations”, finding that “only 8.7% included any evidence of users checking facts and claims.”
- According to survey results released in late July by Mavvrik, 62% of organizations say an unexpected AI cost materially altered a business decision this past year, of which 40% required board-level escalation, 33% triggered emergency spending freezes, and 25% triggered a delay or the canceling of an AI initiative outright.
- In April, WalkMe released results finding that only 9% of workers trust AI for complex, business critical decisions, 54% had bypassed their company’s AI tools in the 30 days prior to the survey, and 80% were avoiding or actively rejecting AI.
For all of AI's obviously impressive and advancing capabilities, it can't validate CAPEX if it falls short of delivering growth to its customers. It's failed to do so to date and other than shiny anecdotes, there's little evidence it will anytime soon. As even Sam Altman has warned: "The economy just has so much inertia."
Apollo link: https://t.co/rGzK3duTJX https://x.com/trevornoren/status/2104991566213652742
## @caprioleio (Charles Edwards) · 09-29 23:58 · ♥30 ↻2 💬10 Memory prices ATH. Chip Exports ATH. Korea up 25% in last 3m alone.
I expect Micron earnings will see a major reprice up tomorrow. As well as AI supply chain in general soon.
All demand pointing up and at growth rates higher than anyone expected. This needs a major blow to reverse course (eg Hyperscaler AI CAPEX cuts) which are currently not on the horizon.
Why is Burry still short? https://x.com/caprioleio/status/2105084793621033106