# AI capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-28 20:46 UTC)
## @ren_stocks (Ren) · 09-28 20:02 · ♥51 ↻4 💬8 $NBIS YOU ARE NOT BULLISH ENOUGH
Truist sizes the AI cloud layer at $2.1T of annual revenue by 2030, and in their map of the AI stack, Nebius is the name they highlight, with a Buy rating and a $355 target.
Now take Nebius's own guidance: $7 to $9B of ARR exiting 2026 with 800 MW to 1 GW of connected power, which works out to roughly $9B of run-rate revenue for every gigawatt they bring online.
They've raised their contracted power target three times this year, from 3 GW to 4 GW to 5 GW, and expect almost all of it online within three to three and a half years.
Five gigawatts at today's revenue per gigawatt is roughly $40 to $45B of ARR, before the 17 to 21% price increases that kick in on October 1. That's about 2% of Truist's cloud layer, and getting there only requires filling power they've already contracted.
The demand is there to fill it: management says they could already sell all of their 2027 capacity on current terms, and customer prepayments reportedly cover 50 to 60% of the related capex.
The real risk is money.
Volozh said 5 GW by 2030 needs about $250B of financing, with only 20% secured so far, so expect more dilution along the way.
Two percent of the layer, with the power already contracted and customers paying up front to get in line.
I like those odds.
This is only getting started 😎
Bullish ⚡ https://x.com/ren_stocks/status/2104662946357940358
## @YahooFinance (Yahoo Finance) · 09-28 13:44 · ♥38 ↻4 💬6 🗣️ It's a big week for Elon Musk, @briansozzi explains.
🚀 SpaceX successfully launched Starship Flight 14, while Tesla gears up for its Roadster unveiling, reportedly priced above $250,000 as a halo car for the brand.
😬 However, JPMorgan just cut Tesla's earnings estimates ahead of a delivery report analysts expect to be weak, also flagging concerns over rising capex tied to AI, data centers, and robotics. https://x.com/YahooFinance/status/2104567940364288098
## @dons_korea (DONS) · 09-28 11:38 · ♥33 ↻4 💬3 [ AI 사이클 주도권, 반도체에서 소프트웨어로 넘어간다. ]
모건스탠리는 AI 사이클이 다음 국면에 들어섰다고 전망했다.
지금까지는 반도체가 먼저 뛰고 인프라가 뒤를 따랐지만, 앞으로는 소프트웨어와 서비스, 그리고 AI를 실제로 도입해 쓰는 기업이 상승을 이끌 차례라는 얘기.
수치가 이를 뒷받침한다.
사이클이 시작된 이후 반도체와 인프라 업종은 S&P500 대비 500~700포인트 초과 상승을 기록했다.
이미 앞선 구간에서 수익을 충분히 챙긴 셈이다
다음 주자로 지목된 AI 도입 기업의 실적 전망도 강하다.
컨센서스는 AI 영향이 큰 도입 기업들의 EBIT 마진이 2025년에서 2026년 사이 460bp 확대될 것으로 보고 있다.
CAPEX를 쓰는 쪽에서 CAPEX 효과를 실적으로 뽑아내는 쪽으로 시장의 관심이 옮겨가느냐가 관건이다. https://x.com/dons_korea/status/2104536237826809946