# HBM demand — X 热门讨论 (2026-10-01 11:31 UTC)
## @TheBigBerbowski (TheBigBerbowski) · 10-01 06:37 · ♥35 ↻2 💬8 I've been following $MU for almost two years, and I disagree with the narrative that this is just another boom-and-bust cycle. I truly think this time is different. How different? AI is driving a new wave of demand for memory, and I see that as a structural shift rather than a temporary spike.
That doesn't mean cyclicality disappears. The question isn't whether cycles still exist, but how much the underlying economics have changed.
My concerns: - Margins still depend heavily on ASPs. What happens when pricing stops improving? - A lack of supply isn't a moat. What protects returns once supply catches up? - Chinese competitors don't need to lead in HBM to pressure conventional DRAM pricing. - A low P/E isn't necessarily cheap if earnings are unusually high. What does Micron earn through the cycle?
Micron isn't an overlooked microcap. My starting assumption is that the low multiple reflects skepticism about earnings durability and not that everyone has missed an obvious bargain.
I still think Micron can grow, but I'd like to see more of that growth come from higher shipments and more differentiated products and not just tighter supply pushing prices higher. > 引用 @TheBigBerbowski: Micron Technology $MU: A critical layer powering AI https://x.com/TheBigBerbowski/status/2105547568444846224