# hyperscaler capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-30 13:09 UTC)
## @haydeninvestsX (Hayden) · 09-30 09:52 · ♥36 ↻1 💬7 So the $600M ATM $AAOI is conducting keeps kneecapping the stock at $100 leaving the price sideways after a 50%+ drawdown. This has obviously led to horrible retail sentiment on X and many are frustrated with management for timing the dilution during a bad macro tape.
First off, I'd rather they raise capital through ATM's than take on debt. 10 Yr treasury yields are at their highest in nearly 2 decades (5.24%) and $AAOI's credit spread is going to be wide with a GAAP net loss of $22.8 million in Q2, a beta of 3.78, and heavy customer concentration. Should they choose to borrow, that's going to be upwards of (estimate) ~10% interest on the loan which at $600M is $60M, paid out at $15M quarterly. We cannot afford to be taking on a heavily levered debt structure like $CRWV. So traditional borrowing is off the menu meaning $AAOI has to dilute shareholders to a degree for capex requirements, otherwise they cannot scale. Also with $AAOI's customer concentration, fixed debt obligations are dangerous. What if the customer pauses orders for a quarter, maybe 2? Raising equity when yields are the highest they've been in 19ish years is the right call, as long as the capacity will convert to revenue. That being said, I concede that $1.7B worth of authorized ATM's this year has been excessive and perhaps they should've tried to use convertible notes at a 25-40% premium instead (that is the only acceptable type of debt in current conditions imo).
I share the frustration with the price action but it's not affecting my outlook on numbers and expansion/ramping through to 2027. Besides, if dilution from a capex heavy business is thesis breaking for you, did you ever really have conviction in the first place?
Now, the Q3 ER is expected on the 5th of November. Here's my bull checklist ✅
- Non GAAP gross margin at 30.5% (Top of the Q3 bar) with Q4 guiding >32% margins. CEO said margins would improve as the year went on, it's time to prove it.
- 800G demand into revenue conversion. Mgmt expects 800G revenue to grow ~5x that of Q2. Q2 800G revenue was $12.8M so upwards of $60M 800G Q3 revenue would satisfy that.
- New orders and binding contracts. LTAs would be a massive step towards more revenue stability.
-1.6T qualification. On Q2 CEO said that we would be supplier qualified for 1.6T by a major hyperscaler finishing in August👀. That window has passed and by now we need an update.
- DSP and TIA secured supply. These two components are like the brain and signal amplifier of the transceiver. $AAOI needs to secure a lasting supply of these so that ramps are not restricted by supply constraints.
- General language like LTA's or secured supply or named timeframes. I don't want to hear "we are working closely with partners" or vague comments like that. We need some execution and validating commentary from the CEO.
There are execution risks to be sure, but these are acceptable personally. If these things go right, the bull case gets increasingly validated 👊. https://x.com/haydeninvestsX/status/2105234196352381266