# HBM demand — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-22 15:28 UTC)
## @ren_stocks (Ren) · 09-22 13:12 · ♥69 ↻2 💬7 $SNDK
Citi expects enterprise SSD demand to rise 52.9% in 2027 and 41% in 2028, with total SSD demand up 45%. NAND demand grows 29% in 2027 and 33% in 2028 against supply growth of 21% and 25%, pushing the supply-demand ratio from −0.8% this year to −6.1% in 2027 and −5.5% in 2028.
Expects industry NAND wafer capacity to grow only 3.2% in 2027, with Samsung's NAND capacity actually falling 4.7% as it redirects resources to DRAM and HBM, and SK hynix and Micron roughly flat. That's the mechanism behind the deficit: demand up 29%, wafers up 3%, with the gap covered only by process migration.
Citi expects the tightness to persist until 2031, with DRAM deficits of −8.7% and −9.7% in 2027 and 2028 alongside the NAND numbers.
And projects NAND average selling prices up 45.3% in 2027.
Bullish for $SNDK https://x.com/ren_stocks/status/2102385475176558771
## @RealNickMugalli (Nicholas Mugalli) · 09-22 10:18 · ♥31 ↻13 💬1 Citi projects a massive structural supply crunch hitting NAND memory.
Driven by AI inference, Nvidia KV-cache offloading, and QLC storage pools, enterprise SSD demand is set to surge 53% in 2027.
With memory makers prioritizing HBM/DRAM, Citi sees the NAND deficit blowing out from 0.8% in 2026 to 6.1% in 2027. > 引用 @RealNickMugalli: The "high margin SaaS" moat is officially deteriorating under the hood.
Since late 2023, median gross margins across major software players have steadily bled lower, with the bottom quartile taking a severe hit—dropping nearly 2.5% by 1Q26.
As legacy seat based models break down, application layer software is absorbing higher underlying compute, model, and infrastructure costs just to stay competitive. The software margin compression isn't cyclical noise anymore …it is the direct tax of paying the hyperscalers for non discretionary AI capability. https://x.com/RealNickMugalli/status/2102341738945737069