# DeFi — X 热门讨论 (2026-10-08 12:25 UTC)
## @WorldOfMercek (Mercek) · 10-08 09:41 · ♥184 ↻14 💬75 The U.S. political cycle is still one of the clocks I keep on my Bitcoin chart.
Not because midterms magically make BTC bottom. I wouldn’t use an election date as a trading signal.
What interests me is what tends to change around these periods.
Elections can reshape control of Congress, the fiscal path, regulatory priorities and eventually Treasury financing needs. The Fed is independent, but it still reacts to the economic conditions created around that policy mix. So every midterm is potentially a macro regime change, not just a political event.
Look at the last three.
In 2014, Obama was president and Republicans took the Senate, giving them control of both chambers of Congress. The Fed ended its asset purchase program that October. Crypto had its own problem at the same time: Mt. Gox had collapsed earlier that year and initially reported roughly 850,000 BTC missing. Bitcoin was dealing with a genuine trust crisis.
In 2018, Democrats flipped the House while Republicans kept the Senate. The Fed was still raising rates and shrinking its balance sheet. Inside crypto, the ICO boom was unwinding, SEC enforcement was becoming much more visible, and the Bitcoin Cash split added another layer of stress late in the year.
Then 2022. Republicans took the House while Democrats retained the Senate. The Fed had just delivered four consecutive 75 bp hikes by the November meeting. Crypto had already gone through Terra, Three Arrows and Celsius, and FTX collapsed during election week.
So all three midterm years had two things happening at once: a changing political/macro backdrop and a major crypto-native unwind.
2026 looks different so far.
Trump is president and Republicans currently control both chambers. The midterms are on November 3, and the next Treasury quarterly refunding announcement is literally scheduled for November 4. Treasury currently expects $628B of privately held net marketable borrowing in Q4. The bond market, financing costs and liquidity conditions are already sitting much closer to the center of the conversation.
But unlike 2014, 2018 and 2022, we haven’t had a crypto-native failure on the scale of Mt. Gox, the ICO unwind or the Terra/FTX chain of events.
And that makes me wonder whether we’re looking for risk in the wrong place.
Each previous cycle had its own machinery carrying the upside. Mt. Gox and centralized exchanges mattered enormously in the early years. The 2017 cycle had ICO issuance and a rapidly expanding crypto trading ecosystem. By 2021, DeFi, centralized lending and leverage had become much more important.
When those structures broke, they helped deepen the downturn that followed.
The machinery behind the 2024-2025 move has been very different.
US spot Bitcoin ETPs opened a regulated capital channel in January 2024, while Strategy alone bought roughly 258,000 BTC during 2024 and another 225,000 BTC in 2025, largely using capital raised through equity and debt markets. Bitcoin is simply much more connected to traditional finance than it was in previous cycles.
So if the mechanisms that carried the upside have changed, I’m not convinced the thing that eventually breaks has to look like another FTX either.
Maybe the more important fault lines this time sit further upstream: Treasury market stress, rising funding costs, deteriorating liquidity, or something in traditional capital markets that weakens the ETF and corporate demand channels that helped get Bitcoin here.
A crypto-native accident can obviously still happen. And the midterms themselves don’t cause any of this.
I’m treating the political cycle as a regime marker, not a prediction.
Bitcoin has become much more of a macro asset over the last few years.
It would make sense if the risks we need to watch became more macro too. https://x.com/WorldOfMercek/status/2108130535306400140
## @P_hexx (P_hexx🌬️) · 10-08 10:06 · ♥116 ↻28 💬96 𝐇𝐄𝐑𝐄’𝐒 𝐖𝐇𝐘 @KyberNetwork 𝐈𝐒 𝐖𝐎𝐑𝐓𝐇 𝐀 𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐄𝐑 𝐋𝐎𝐎𝐊.👀
DeFi doesn’t actually have a liquidity problem.
It has a liquidity coordination problem.
◆ Different chains ◆ Different DEXs ◆ Different liquidity sources
Kyber is building around that fragmentation connecting liquidity and optimizing how trades move across markets.
➜ The interface is only the surface.
➜ The infrastructure underneath is where it gets interesting.
Now look at more qualities that make them more unique.🧵 https://x.com/P_hexx/status/2108136924309286974
## @atiqur2904 (atik) · 10-08 10:44 · ♥76 ↻3 💬82 Good Afternoon Friends... Happy Thursday
Been thinking about @PlayOnMint and @zerufinance from a similar angle:
The interesting part isn’t just earning rewards.
It’s making activity actually mean something.
On PlayOnMint, one wager can feed into WL access, $MNTD eligibility, Daily Drip and rakeback.
With Zeru, the activity you’ve accumulated across DeFi can become reputation through zScore, instead of your wallet being treated like a blank address.
Different products, same bigger shift:
**your activity becomes an asset.**
That feels like an important direction for onchain apps.
Less “connect wallet and farm.”
More “show what you’ve actually done, and get recognized for it.”
I’m bullish on that evolution. 👀 > 引用 @atiqur2904: Good Evening Friends...
Honestly, I'm tired of NFT launches where you jump through hoops before you've even touched the product.
What I like about @PlayOnMint is that MintABear flips that. Part of the 4,444 supply can reach you just by being active on MINT. You use it first, and the NFT follows.
Same energy I'm seeing from @zerufinance , where wash trading and sybils don't count and real behavior does. Feels like crypto is finally rewarding people who actually show up 🐻
Give me a prompt to visualise this https://x.com/atiqur2904/status/2108146616251416744
## @DamiDefi (Dami-Defi) · 10-08 11:30 · ♥103 ↻9 💬5 Did you know 58 of 150 top traders on Robinhood Chain's trending tokens turned out to be bots?
By top traders I mean the wallets with the highest realized profit on each trending token. I pulled them with CoinGecko API, checked 150 of them, and 58 were bots. That's after I'd already thrown out the most obvious ones.
Another 42 made most of their money on a single token, like one wallet up $2.9M where 91% came from AI. Only 9 actually win across lots of trades.
I built Smart Sniper to answer one question before I touch a trending token: who's actually behind it? You can try it yourself here: https://t.co/ux4M6c45KW
Here's how I'm using it:
I check the token's leaderboard first. If most of its top traders are bots, that volume isn't real demand, so I skip the token entirely.
For tokens that pass, I look at the wallets that survive the filter and add them to my watchlist. That's a short list worth following, not hundreds of random addresses.
I look at what those wallets are still holding. When two good wallets are sitting in the same token, that's a lead worth digging into.
And before I'd ever follow a wallet, I check where its profit came from. If one token is 90% of it, that's luck, not a strategy.
Doing this by hand used to mean an explorer tab for every wallet, and you'd still only see one chain. CoinGecko API gives me the trending pools, the most profitable traders behind them, and each wallet's full PnL across chains from one place. It already covers a chain as new as Robinhood.
If you've got your own research process, turn it into a tool. Links below.
Try Smart Sniper: https://t.co/ux4M6c45KW Fork the repo: https://t.co/NLslftSWgb Get a CoinGecko API key: https://t.co/fxmtGLQVQ4
Research only, not financial advice. https://x.com/DamiDefi/status/2108158001546924523
## @Defi_Warhol (DeFi Warhol) · 10-08 09:21 · ♥75 ↻13 💬20 I don't think you guys understand how big of a W this could be for both @SeiNetwork and @DinariGlobal.
For starters, Sei has recorded over 100 million wallet addresses and 5 billion transactions over its lifetime.
Once dShares are available on Sei, that could give Dinari another route to reach retail investors already using the network.
Dinari already lets eligible U.S. investors buy dShares with $USDC and receive cash dividends in USDC when the underlying stocks pay them.
Bringing that to Sei could give people already holding USDC on the network another way to put it to good use.
@SeiNetwork is still actively developing its RWA presence, and Dinari is positioning itself as a top tokenization player across the chain.
Nonetheless, I'm still looking forward to seeing how many investors use dShares on Sei and how much trading activity follows once they become available. > 引用 @SeiNetwork: Dinari is bringing 700+ tokenized U.S. stocks to Sei, including the entire S&P 500.
dShares are tokenized U.S. stocks, backed 1:1 by securities held by a registered US broker-dealer, available for eligible US investors. https://t.co/5auGfZwBZv https://x.com/Defi_Warhol/status/2108125502104105052
## @Agedo_Memoria (Visages de France) · 10-08 10:21 · ♥77 ↻18 💬2 Pierre Brochand (né à Cannes en 1941) Ancien haut fonctionnaire, diplomate et directeur général de la DGSE (2002-2008). Depuis sa retraite, il s'est exprimé sur l'immigration massive et incontrôlée, en y voyant un défi qui menace directement la paix civile (risque de confrontation interne) voir le pronostic vital du pays. https://x.com/Agedo_Memoria/status/2108140802815730153