# hyperscaler capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-10-01 01:43 UTC)
## @TechFundies (TechStockFundamentals) · 09-30 18:14 · ♥34 ↻2 💬1 @a16z put out a solid deck today on State of AI.
Does a good job of just putting it all together - AI capabilities rapidly expanding, AI model revenue ramp unprecedented, semi spend underneath unprecedented and driving earnings growth of the entire stock market, and multiples reasonable due to cyclical concerns.
To me, the "elephant in the room" question is simply will AI monetization accelerate over the next couple years from what likely will be ~200b run-rate at the end of this year.
Very rough math, but we added ~170b of model revenue in 2026 against 1.4t of capex over the past 3 years and 780b in 2026.
Expectations per chart below are for 1.1t of capex in 2027 which then flattens. Maybe that implies the model companies in aggregate need to add ~200b of ARR each year to justify that spend?
Is that possible? Sure but also tough to assign probability bc there are a million unanswerable questions underneath (product development, pricing power, etc.).
That's also the bear case for semis for a future date: even if model companies plus others can add ~200b / year of incremental revenue, that implies semi spend stagnates after 2027 -> second derivative turns negative and multiples stay low until the inevitable downturn.
I personally think 2028 is probably a 20-30% growth year in capex so the whole trade is more likely to up than down from here at these valuations, but just pointing out the risk that the market is pricing in here (and that has to dissipate via continued ARR growth / hyperscaler capex growth commentary to see the trade run).
[Btw, I also think it's so fascinating that leading investment firms are also publishing leading news / research. This free newsletter from A16Z smokes independent publications (WSJ, Gartner, etc.), and the sell-side (less conflicted in some ways and more informed)] https://x.com/TechFundies/status/2105360586779541931