HBM demand · X 热门 · 2026-09-30 08:14 UTC

# HBM demand — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-30 08:14 UTC)

## @SemiconductorsX (Semiconductor Insider) · 09-29 16:52 · ♥36 ↻2 💬3 This cycle just printed the fattest memory margins on the Bernstein tape.

September 2026 data: peak gross margin 91% on DRAM and 87% on NAND. After a 2028 fade both still sit above every cycle high since 2008.

AI servers, HBM and enterprise QLC SSDs for KV-cache overflow are the drivers. Consumer bits already feel the squeeze. $SKHY $MU Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron take most of the profit. Micron’s recent 85%+ gross margin is above NVIDIA’s. New wafers still go to high-value SKUs first, so tightness runs into 2027–28.

China is the second-half risk. CXMT is about 9.5% of global DRAM. YMTC is about 13% of NAND. Both are expanding and crossing into each other’s markets.

Wuhan and Beijing adds, plus domestic cloud demand, could loosen the shortage later and press prices.

Downstream, Apple is already seeing memory take 90% of iPhone cost inflation. > 引用 @intelfabs: Current cycle peak DRAM margin: 91% CY2028 normalized DRAM margin: high-70s% Both the normalized DRAM and NAND margins remain above every prior cycle peak.

Source: Bernstein Global Memory: Cycle is still elevated, but beware of the long-term threat from China EXHIBIT 14 and 15 https://t.co/WHIdJQhIXz https://x.com/SemiconductorsX/status/2104977550825144348