# AI capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-30 03:52 UTC)
## @Lockyjoon (로키빈) · 09-29 22:26 · ♥32 ↻6 💬4 속보) 테슬라 300억 달러 총탄 확보!
결론: 단기 중립, 장기 극호재 (AI·로보택시 가속)
팩트체크: 300억 달러 확보 완료. "지금 당장 빌 려 쓰는 빚"이 아니라, 필요할 때 꺼내 쓰는 '든든 한 마이너스 통장(드라이 파우더)' 개념입니다.
주가 예측 및 핵심 시그널: 주가 방어막: 시장에서 우려하던 "투자금 부족으 로 인한 주주가치 희석(유상증자)" 가능성을 완 전히 차단하여 주가 하방 경직성을 확보했
미래 성장 엔진: 2026년 계획된 250억 달러 이 상의 역대급 설비투자(Capex), 즉 AI 컴퓨팅 인 프라, 로보택시, SpaceX 협력 태양광 사업 등을 위한 강력한 실탄이 마련된 셈입니다
#테슬라 > 引用 @SawyerMerritt: Tesla has just secured a new $30 billion financing package, significantly expanding the company’s available borrowing capacity, according to a new SEC filing.
• $20B delayed-draw term loan facility • $8B five-year revolving credit facility • $2B 364-day revolving credit facility
Tesla has not borrowed any of the $30 billion yet and says it currently does not plan to draw on the facilities in 2026. https://x.com/Lockyjoon/status/2105061645865377838
## @connectgurmeet (Gurmeet Chadha) · 09-30 03:34 · ♥33 ↻5 💬2 Nvidia doing a $150 Bn buyback
open AI doing a private funding round of $30 Bn at $1.4 Trillion valuation
AI capex in US alone is $700 Bn+
Our big corporates have clearly missed the biggest Industrial Revolution in form of AI..
But there are a few first Gen entrepreneurs investing in AI ancillaries and ecosystem, energy value chain , defence technology as works rearms and future health tech.. use the correction to own them for long term. Others are mostly value traps n may at best give u some tactical bounce … https://x.com/connectgurmeet/status/2105139077309964319
## @QQ_Timmy (駿HaYaO) · 09-29 23:45 · ♥32 ↻0 💬0 JPMorgan 台積電 TSMC（https://t.co/X7ajlAmyXY）
8月營收年增53%、月增10%，約當第3季預估67%。AI加速器需求強，3Q有望達財測中高標。資料中心AI能見度已到2029–30。2027年即使N3再擴約40%，缺口仍可能惡化，主因NVIDIA Rubin/Vera與agentic AI CPU。毛利率可守在60%中高段；N2/A16初期市占估仍95%以上，A14進度領先英特爾、三星。
營收與毛利率 3Q26營收朝446–458億美元中高標（JPM估455億），N3/N5利用率逾100%。3Q毛利率估約66.5%，季減約1.2個百分點，因N2折舊上來。之後估維持60%中高段（26/27/28年66.9%/67.5%/68.7%）。 支撐：N3毛利率2026下半年可超公司平均、先進製程高利用率，以及2027年初漲價（N3/N2逾10%，N5/N7與CoWoS較溫和）抵銷N2稀釋。
N3短缺與擴產 2026年N3缺口約60萬片，2027年再擴約40%後仍可能擴大。NVIDIA 2027年將拿走N3供給55–60%（上半年還不到10%），另有AI CPU與ASIC（TPU v8、Trn3）。Capex估2027年810億、2028年900億美元，且後續還可能上修。N3月產能估2026/27/28年底17.8/22.3/24.3萬片。
先進封裝 CoWoS月產能估2027年底約19–20萬片，年增約65%。2028年重點轉SoIC（估6.5萬片/月），因NVIDIA Feynman可能用3D SoIC做GPU堆疊。封裝能力會回頭支撐先進製程晶圓需求。
競爭格局 前端未見Intel拿下有意義專案。 待14A於2028年量產時，台積電N2家族年化營收估已達500–600億美元，A14也將量產。14A目前僅見蘋果在做測試片；尚無HPC在18A/14A投片。 封裝端Intel或拿部分案子（如TPU v9的EMIB-T），但CoWoS仍是主流。先進製程市占估維持95%以上。封裝不是對手切入代工的捷徑，時程差太大。 > 引用 @statementdog: JPMorgan expects TSMC $TSM to raise N2 and N3 wafer prices by 8% to 10% in 2027. The bank says the increases would be larger than the market expects.
According to the Economic Daily News, the bank forecasts smaller increases for older nodes such as N5 and N7 and broadly flat pricing for mature nodes, where prices have historically declined.
JPMorgan expects TSMC’s blended wafer ASP to rise 23% year over year in 2027, compared with an estimated 17% increase in 2026. It also sees strong demand and further price increases for CoWoS.
The bank expects TSMC to keep raising its capex guidance over the coming quarters, citing tight capacity and the need to fend off potential competitors. It forecasts spending of $81 billion in 2027 and $90 billion in 2028. https://x.com/QQ_Timmy/status/2105081501906083920