# AI infrastructure stocks — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-28 13:07 UTC)

## @LeoNelissen (Leo) · 09-27 21:07 · ♥30 ↻5 💬11 Something very strange is happening in markets right now.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is near two-decade highs.

The Fed has already started hiking again.

Oil is still a problem.

And yet stocks are basically saying:

“So what?”

That sounds bullish.

History says it can be.

But it can also become extremely dangerous.

Look at what happened the last few times bond yields surged.

In 1994, the Fed surprised markets with a rate hike and the 10-year yield jumped more than 100 basis points in just 40 trading sessions.

The S&P 500 fell roughly 8%.

But then stocks recovered even as yields kept rising because investors decided the economy was strong enough to handle it.

In 2016, something even more interesting happened.

Yields AND stocks rose together.

Higher rates were interpreted as confirmation that the economy was finally getting stronger after years of sluggish post-crisis growth.

That is the bullish version of what we are seeing today.

Then there is 1999.

Bond yields surged.

Stocks initially struggled.

Then the dot-com boom became so powerful that equities simply stopped caring about higher rates.

The market kept running.

Until it didn’t.

The S&P 500 eventually peaked in March 2000 and fell 49% before the bear market was over.

And then there is 2022.

That was the ugly version.

Inflation forced the Fed into aggressive tightening, bond yields exploded higher, and stocks finally broke under the pressure.

So which setup are we in today?

That is the trillion-dollar question.

Right now, the economy is still holding up largely because of an absolutely historic AI infrastructure boom.

$MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL $META $ORCL

are spending at a scale that is supporting construction, jobs, power demand and corporate investment even as borrowing costs rise.

That strength is helping stocks ignore the bond market.

But here is the part I think investors need to think very carefully about.

The Fed watches financial conditions.

And if Treasury yields rise while stocks stay near record highs, credit remains available and the economy refuses to slow...

then financial conditions may simply not be tight enough.

That means the stock market’s own strength can become a reason for the Fed to stay hawkish.

That is the paradox.

Stocks are celebrating economic resilience.

The Fed may see that same resilience and conclude it needs to keep pushing.

This is why I don’t think a 5%+ 10-year yield automatically kills the bull market.

History clearly shows stocks CAN rally with rising yields.

But history also shows that the reason yields are rising matters enormously.

If yields rise because growth is accelerating, stocks can handle it.

If yields rise because inflation is forcing the Fed to tighten harder and harder...

eventually something usually breaks.

For now, the market is betting this is 2016.

The risk is that it slowly starts looking more like 1999...

or 2022. https://x.com/LeoNelissen/status/2104316918526300236