# HBM demand — X 热门讨论 (2026-10-08 19:32 UTC)
## @SemiconductorsX (Semiconductor Insider) · 10-08 04:19 · ♥30 ↻1 💬7 Samsung is cutting phone output because the memory inside the phone now belongs to the other side of the company.
MoneyToday, October 8, exclusive: the MX unit recently told suppliers to cut deliveries 20% to 30%. Fourth-quarter smartphone production is expected to fall by as much as 30%.
IDC had it at 62.4 million units in the first quarter and 62.7 million in the second, then 59 million in the third and 52 million in the fourth, a 12% drop quarter to quarter. The new cut is deeper than that. A Galaxy Z Fold8-led year had been seen at 270 million phones. With the fourth-quarter cut, volume looks like the low 200 millions.
The fourth quarter is usually soft. New models land in January and February, and graduation season is a first-quarter event. The extra cut is memory. TrendForce has phone LPDDR5X, 12GB, at $145 to $146 in the second quarter, up 175% from a year earlier. Third-quarter phone DRAM is seen about 20% higher again, up to $180.
One industry source told the paper there is nothing left after a sale, and the cut is how it protects group profit. It reports preliminary third-quarter results today. FnGuide consensus is 106.64 trillion won of operating profit, about $79 billion at roughly 1,344 won per dollar. One broker has MX at a 1.9 trillion won operating loss, about $1.4 billion.
The wafer that used to sit in a Galaxy is worth more in an HBM stack.
If the phone unit is losing about $1.4 billion while the group is modeled at $79 billion, is the 30% cut a demand problem or a transfer price? > 引用 @SemiconductorsX: EXCLUSIVE: Samsung to cut smartphone production by 30%. https://t.co/VZkBfbsGa8 https://x.com/SemiconductorsX/status/2108049701539021049