# AI capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-16 17:44 UTC)
## @Teslaconomics (Teslaconomics) · 09-16 16:36 · ♥62 ↻12 💬9 You’d be a fool to sell $TSLA right now.
I believe sellers at these levels will live a life long full of regret for doing so, bc when I look under the hood at Tesla right now, I see the team executing at a level I've never seen before.
I'm talking FSD, robotaxi, Cybercab, energy, cars, Semi... here are things happening right now that have my attention.
1/ FSD is crushing it and is already a real business.
Tesla now has nearly 1.5 million paid FSD customers globally. In Q2, about 55% of North American deliveries had FSD subscription enabled at delivery. About 45% of those paid customers are on the monthly plan, that's roughly 666,000 people paying around $99 a month. That's close to $800 million a year in recurring software revenue... and Tesla has already said that price is going up as FSD gets closer to unsupervised.
And the Tesla team is proving it on the hardest roads in the world.
Tesla Europe says FSD Supervised is already approved in five EU countries, used by more than 70,000 customers, covering over 1 million km every single day. Tesla says it's 4.1x less likely to get into a crash than manual driving, measured across about 100 million km on public EU roads.
Today Tesla Europe said it has spent two years testing FSD Supervised all over Spain and has now covered roughly 460,000 km there. This is hundreds of thousands of kilometers of real European roads, intersections, roundabouts and traffic that is becoming a real part of the regulatory conversation. France has started its own on-road evaluation of Tesla FSD. And there's a potential EU-wide approval vote on October 6... which I believe is just a matter of time if regulators care about humanity.
2/ Tesla’s ride-hailing network continues to expand.
Tesla currently offers autonomous Robotaxi rides in Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando and Tampa. And Tesla also operates its ride-hailing service in the Bay Area, where vehicles still operate with a safety driver.
At the Cybercab launch, Tesla said the fleet has now done 1 million miles of unsupervised Robotaxi operation. On the last earnings call they said 380,000+ unsupervised miles across six cities with ZERO notable incidents from the Tesla vehicles themselves... and then they more than doubled that in about six weeks.
These are real rides, real customers, real $ changing hands... and this matters to me bc there’s a huge difference between showing autonomy on a stage and actually operating a transportation network across multiple major U.S. markets.
3/ Cybercab is actually carrying people.
The purpose-built Cybercab that has no steering wheel, no pedals, is giving rides in Austin right now. Tesla says more than 40 were deployed around the launch. And I know bc I rode in one. That’s what people need to understand.. we’ve moved from: “Imagine if Tesla builds this…” to “Open the app and get inside one.” This is a big deal.
And it's true, Cybercab has regulatory risk.
NHTSA sent Tesla a special order related to Cybercab certification, with responses due September 30. And I’m not going to pretend that doesn’t matter bc it does. But regulatory scrutiny does not automatically mean the product is dead. The product is operating while Tesla and regulators work through how a vehicle designed without traditional human controls fits existing rules. That’s an overhang, but this kind of push back was expected, and this does not mean the program is stopping. The fact that Cybercabs are real now is what stands out to me, this is a major milestone from the Tesla team. And the fleet size is only going to go up from here.
4/ Tesla Energy is becoming impossible to ignore.
Tesla deployed 13.5 GWh of energy storage in Q2 2026 alone. That's up 41% from a year ago, and the energy business did $3.14 billion in revenue in one quarter. There are already more than 1 million Powerwalls installed across 30 countries. Tesla says that fleet has helped avoid 21.5 million outages.
Think about that installed base... I'm talking homes, batteries, backup power, virtual power plants, real hardware sitting behind the meter all over the world.
It's clear Tesla is NOT just a car company.
5/ Model Y still shows what Tesla can do at true global scale.
The Model Y was the world's best-selling battery-electric vehicle in 2025, with about 1.09 million delivered. That's nearly 8% of ALL battery-electric vehicle sales worldwide... just this one model. Bro... that's nearly one out of every 12 BEVs sold globally.
And in Q2 Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles, up 25% year over year, and printed $28.2 billion in revenue, the biggest quarter in Tesla history. Trailing twelve-month revenue crossed $100 billion for the FIRST TIME.
People can argue about quarterly delivery numbers all day, but I’m looking at what Tesla has already proven it can manufacture and sell globally. The Model Y remains a hit.
6/ Tesla Semi is finally entering the next phase.
Tesla is building its first high-volume Semi factory in Nevada... a 1.7 million square foot plant designed to build up to 50,000 electric trucks a year. The first Semi already came off the high-volume line in April, and Tesla is inaugurating the factory on September 24.
This week the Semi made its public debut in Europe at IAA in Hannover, with customer deliveries there targeted for 2027.
Again, I care about factories bc presentations are easy, but building real factories are extremely hard.
The impact of the Tesla Semi is under-appreciated imo.
7/ They have the cash to keep building.
Tesla ended Q2 with about $43.5 billion in cash and investments. They spent a record $5.8 billion in the quarter building the next chapter, and they guided to more than $25 billion in capex this year... AI compute, factories, Cybercab, Semi, batteries.
Operating cash flow was $4.7 billion. Free cash flow went negative bc they're pouring money into the future, not bc the business is falling apart.
That's what a company looks like when it's going for the whole thing... not trying to look pretty on a quarterly print. The team is investing heavy to secure their leadership in AI and robotics, and that's what I like to see.
8/ There are ~9.7 million Teslas on the road.
That's 9.7 million vehicles Tesla has already delivered. Nearly 1.5 million of them are paying for FSD. Some of them are already Robotaxis. A lot of the rest can turn it on with a subscription. I think people still underestimate that. The cars are already built. The software keeps getting better. The network keeps growing. This flywheel is going to only get stronger from here.
The Tesla team have been grinding while a lot of people got tired of waiting.
Sure, not every product is fully scaled.
Yes, not every regulatory question is solved.
It's true, not every timeline will happen exactly when Elon says it will.
That’s reality.
However, I don’t invest based on whether a stock went green for three days... I invest in businesses that keep building.
Keep executing.
Keep taking the craziest ideas and turning them into real products.
That’s why I’m patient with $TSLA.
I’m watching the factories, the software, the miles and the products.
And right now... there is a LOT happening. https://x.com/Teslaconomics/status/2100262637485638132
## @optionscjp (Options selling with Christian) · 09-16 16:24 · ♥45 ↻1 💬10 $META last month: "Story is dead, they are wasting money on Capex, Theyre gonna owe every state $5t to settle the kids lawsuit, they have no real AI product"
$META this month: Zuck is a gigachad, Meta just launched what could end up being the hottest, most useful to everyday person AI agent, lawsuit gone" https://x.com/optionscjp/status/2100259445058187299
## @pandawatch88 (goldenlabubuwatch) · 09-16 14:04 · ♥31 ↻1 💬5 Personal AI in China is Bytedance game to lose, and they are already monetizing.
Imagine being Tencent in this situation: --having to explain every quarter to the markets your AI capex vs opex vs cloud growth etc --investors like "no no, we don't like this, you must grow top line and margins at the same time" --share price keeps sinking, employees despair seeing their wealth shrink --meanwhile the key competitor remains private, spending double the ammount on AI, zero fkx given to profit, and raising the share price for employee buybacks every 6 months
It's even a worse situation than in the US. Anthropic and OAI have no cash flow, and still Google and Meta struggle against them. In China, Bytedance has more cashflow than the public companies.
Very rough situation. At this rate Tencent and BABA may end up renting them compute (see, Martin was right, there was value in that capex). https://x.com/pandawatch88/status/2100224334858166436