hyperscaler capex · X 热门 · 2026-10-02 02:47 UTC

# hyperscaler capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-10-02 02:47 UTC)

## @ericwallerstein (Eric Wallerstein) · 10-01 15:00 · ♥31 ↻8 💬5 good illustration of why AI is not necessarily that stimulative for the US economy.

hyperscaler & frontier lab spending helps generate stock market performance, boosting consumption thru the wealth effect…

but borrowing needs raise rates and push down asset prices—meanwhile much of the actual spending leaks abroad as foreign income.

while “imports are subtracted from gdp” is the accounting identity for why AI isn’t driving the bulk of GDP growth, it also represents a very meaningful loss of spillovers to the rest of the economy.

Ideally, the resultant productivity growth starts to drive higher potential and actual output. But i would argue that not just long term rates, but also fed policy, would be much looser without AI capex and therefore the rest of the economy would be in better shape. > 引用 @Brad_Setser: Global economy right now is US firms borrowing huge sums to buy Korean and Taiwanese chips (the Taiwanese chips have embedded US design too ... )

Trailing 3m sum of Korea's trade surplus, annualized, is approaching $500b. China pre COVID numbers, from a much smaller economy. WAY bigger than the EU ex Ireland surplus.

2/2 https://x.com/ericwallerstein/status/2105674317295956210