# AI capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-26 15:43 UTC)
## @Funmentalist (The Fundamentalist) · 09-26 14:18 · ♥37 ↻2 💬6 Nebius Thesis (Updated - September 2026) https://x.com/Funmentalist/status/2103851611403465206
## @MikeZaccardi (Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖) · 09-26 14:23 · ♥34 ↻4 💬3 GS: We estimate that hyperscaler capex is driving roughly half of S&P 500 earnings growth this year.
As hyperscaler capex growth slows and depreciation expenses rise, the impact of AI investment spending on S&P 500 earnings growth will begin to fade and eventually become a drag. https://t.co/QiarJ2FMJ8 https://x.com/MikeZaccardi/status/2103852845359411361
## @Mike_Taylor1972 (Michael Taylor) · 09-26 13:09 · ♥32 ↻3 💬6 This is THE AI problem that keeps me up at night while enterprise takes in-house data ctr and $ overall is materially neg while capex is $$$$ 4x the cost of 2 yrs ago. @Hedgeye > 引用 @zerohedge: This could be a problem: Goldman sensitivity table shows that in a worst case scenario where hyperscaler ROIC on capex is 0 (token costs collapse, token demand goes to open models, etc) they still need to spend $920BN every year just to cover depreciation and running costs https://x.com/Mike_Taylor1972/status/2103834395568132439
## @LnprCapital (LNPR Capital) · 09-26 01:50 · ♥30 ↻5 💬0 𝗔𝗜𝗠𝗧𝗥𝗢𝗡 𝗘𝗟𝗘𝗖𝗧𝗥𝗢𝗡𝗜𝗖𝗦
Revenue nearly doubled. Order book nearly tripled. The next question is whether the balance sheet can keep pace.
𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗕𝗨𝗦𝗜𝗡𝗘𝗦𝗦 An ESDM player repositioning as ODM-led. • Standalone mix: Box Build 68.8%, PCBA 28.6%, ODM just 2.6% • Top verticals: Industrial 23%, Telecom & Network Security 22%, Power 18.5%, IoT & Robotics 13% • India contributes 74% of revenue, USA and North America around 19% • Order book ₹521 crore (around 1.7x FY26 revenue), up from ₹189 crore a year ago • Plus a ₹58 crore IoT/AI surveillance order received on 6 April 2026 • RFQ pipeline of ₹900 to 950 crore • Order book led by Telecom 32%, Power & Data Centre 22%, IoT & Robotics 21%
𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗣𝗥𝗢𝗗𝗨𝗖𝗧𝗦 • Box Build: complete systems including enclosures, cables and testing • PCBA: design through volume production • End-to-end ODM: concept to mass manufacturing Notable programs: UPS for data centres, AI dashboard camera, SIL-4 railway signalling electronics (Kavach), and drone PCBA used in the 77th Republic Day parade display. Next leg: SFP optical transceivers (1G to 25G) under ECMS via subsidiary Aimtron Mechatronics. Application acknowledged by MeitY, approval pending.
𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗖𝗔𝗣𝗘𝗫 • PPE doubled from ₹31 crore to ₹63 crore • Greenfield Vadodara facility under construction with 6 SMT lines and a dedicated ODM R&D zone (existing base: 9 SMT, 37 THT, 3 box build lines) • New SMT line with AI inspection added in Nov 2025 • US acquisition of ICS, Decatur, Illinois: 58,000 sq ft on 3.9 acres, incremental spend of ₹10 to 12 crore, utilisation targeted from around 54% to 90% over 3 years • Management sees long-term revenue potential of USD 25 to 30 mn (₹280 to 300 crore) from the US unit; current order book there is USD 7.2 mn • Funding: ₹95 crore convertible warrant issue (around ₹20 crore on the balance sheet so far); long-term borrowings up from nil to ₹55 crore
𝗪𝗛𝗔𝗧 𝗧𝗢 𝗧𝗥𝗔𝗖𝗞 • Inventory up nearly 3x to ₹103 crore; receivables at ₹135 crore (around 164 days of revenue) • Cash down from ₹36 crore to ₹14 crore • H2 margin compression as employee and other costs scale with the US business • ODM share is still small against the ODM-led narrative • Guidance of 40 to 50% CAGR for 3 to 5 years; execution and working capital will decide the quality of that growth
Growth is visible. Cash conversion is the test.
Disclaimer: LNPR Capital is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst (RA No. INH000012953, BSE Enlistment No. 5843). This post is for educational and informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. https://x.com/LnprCapital/status/2103663410009542935