# AI semiconductor stocks — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-12 11:07 UTC)

## @ParadisLabs (Paradis) · 09-12 10:39 · ♥44 ↻4 💬12 Some thoughts on the AI trade.

Going forwards, I think it'll be mega important to be more selective when picking AI stocks. I think the era of mining for new bottlenecks like gold in a riverbed is exhausted.

Basically... I think taking a longer-term, buy-and-hold view to stock picking will become more important now. Plainly - high quality companies. (I explain what this might look like below).

In H1, we saw any and every AI beneficary get re-rated from low -> fair -> high valuations. That includes tiny microcaps from Europe and Asia where huge returns were enjoyed if you capitalized on the "bottleneck" trade.

However, if we use KOSPI as a proxy for retail froth, it's pretty clear that investors are now positioning way more cautiously than H1. Retail net equity buying has dropped by ~90% since July, and investors are instead depositing cash into bank accounts - deposits at Korea's top 5 banks increased in Jul-Aug to above KRW 1,000T for the first time.

This could change quickly once the macro environment clears up with time, but ultimately, I still believe that the core bottlenecks will continue to persist - memory, power, photonics etc etc. We all know the list by now. But...within those bottlenecks...which companies will generate the strongest ROI and cash conversion? I think this is the question that most investors should be asking more intensely given how intricate semiconductor financing has become AND the sheer scale of capital in play.

In that sense, which companies have the most/longest visibility over demand into the future? And of those, which companies can hike prices so they don't lose out on any of that demand to competitors? An easy example that comes to mind is NVIDIA.

Regardless, I think it's that level of certainty that investors are now looking for, rather than H1 where supply chain mapping carried those outsized returns in small caps. Personally, I'm still expecting momentum in the AI trade to continue and still hold some small cap names from H1 as moonshot bets (also some cash for additional fun bets). But, I've repositioned to have a significantly higher concentration in names I view as the bottleneck winner(s) vs. H1.

But TLDR: I think it makes sense to now take a longer-term view to your positioning in the AI trade. Which companies are FCF positive/growing? Which have pricing power and possess critical components/materials/infra that can't be designed/competed away?

Going forwards, I think these questions will be more and more important as the AI trade matures. https://x.com/ParadisLabs/status/2098723048203411552