# semiconductor earnings — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-27 22:55 UTC)

## @MikeLongTerm (Mike) · 09-27 18:38 · ♥44 ↻3 💬2 $AMD | $INTC CEO said can only meett 50% customer demand for CPUs🚨🚨🚨

@intel is finding it difficult to meet server CPU demand. Tan recently remarked at a conference that it can meet only 50% of customer demand for CPUs. This is good news for Intel and @AMD , as both companies are dominant players in the x86 server CPU space. The shortage of CPUs should ideally lead to higher prices, lifting the margins and earnings of Intel and AMD.

Tom's Hardware reports that Intel is poised to implement a 10% price hike in March 2027. It is worth noting that the company has already implemented a couple of price hikes this year. Even AMD is expected to follow suit, according to the report. So, the impressive turnaround in Intel's fortunes is likely to continue.

AMD could be a bigger beneficiary of the booming demand for server CPUs. That's because it has consistently taken market share from Intel in the x86 server CPU market. Mercury Research reports that AMD's server CPU market share increased to 34.5% in Q2 this year, up from 27.3% in the year-ago period.

Intel, therefore, lost significant ground to AMD, primarily due to the latter's technological advantage in server CPUs. UBS analysts note that the superior core count of AMD's server CPUs and their multithreading capability make them ideal for handling agentic AI workloads. This explains why AMD is clocking significantly faster growth in the data center segment, with revenue increasing by 107% year over year in Q2.

What's more, AMD is looking to capitalize on Intel's supply chain problems by ramping up production capacity in Taiwan in association with foundry giant TSMC. Ceo Lisa Su expects to increase CPU capacity rapidly in every quarter this year. Moreover, AMD is looking to add more capacity in 2027.

Intel, on the other hand, noted on its Q2earnings callthat it is struggling to meet demand despite increasing production yields and enhancing output. AMD, meanwhile, believes that it can grow its server revenue by over 80% in the second half of 2026 compared to last year, followed by an increase of over 70% in 2027.

In simple terms, AMD believes it can grow faster than the server CPU market, indicating it is confident in taking more share away from Intel. Even consensus estimates project that AMD's server CPU gains will translate into stronger growth.

Analysts expect an 82% spike in AMD's earnings this year, followed by a 105% increase in 2027. Intel's earnings growth, meanwhile, is expected to slow down from 262% this year to 35% in 2027. With AMD trading at 36 times forward earnings compared to Intel's forward earnings multiple of 56, investors looking to buy a semiconductor stock to capitalize on the booming AI server CPU demand would do well to buy AMD over Intel, especially considering Chipzilla's diminishing market share. > 引用 @MikeLongTerm: $AMD at $630/share is dirt cheap on 0.1-0.6 PEG🧵 Not Financial Advice! DYOR! I do own AMD shares!

Projected FY2026 Revenue: $55-$60B ($57.5B Mid) Net margin keeps rising with better operating leverage PEG = (today’s price ÷ that year’s EPS) ÷ EPS CAGR from 2026.

2027 will have explosive YoY growth "well over 100%", which we can think of 120-140%. Fwd PE is in the 26-29x with 3 digits growth, that is cheap. And yes everyone is trying to project 2028-2029 growth RIGHT NOW. I'm sticking to my $800 Personal PT by end of 2026. AMD this week broke my old $620 PT.

This thread is more of average revenue growth projections for the next 3-5 years to judge its PEG Ratio. Less than 1 is mad cheap for @AMD growth and potential.

I believe 40-50% CAGR is very reasonable base case for AMD in the next 3-5 years. 60%+ is the bull case where AMD gets more TSMC allocation as #1 TSMC customer in term of WPM.

Dr. Su has been explicit that the old 1:4 / 1:8 CPU to GPU host ratio is moving toward 1–2:1, and that lots of agents could mean much more CPUs than GPUs. In recent discussion, people are talking abt 40 CPU : 1 GPU in extreme Agentic AI case. In a $META @Muse Consumer Agentic world, the most logical Ratio would be 8-12 CPU : 1 GPU IMO. Consumers are actually find AI Agents useful, and Muse is WINNING!

Projected GPUs market share FY2027 15-25% CPUs market share will be in the 50%+ medium-long term.

Net Margin Path assumption, the advantage of Fabless: 40% case: 24% → 26% → 28% → 30% → 32% → 33% 50% case: 24% → 27% → 30% → 32% → 34% → 35% 60% case: 24% → 28% → 31% → 33% → 35% → 36%

Revenue > Net Income > EPS > PE > PEG

1. 40% revenue CAGR 2026: $57.5B, $13.8B NI, $8.31 EPS, 76x 2027: $80.5B, $20.9B NI, $12.61 EPS, 50x , PEG 0.97 2028: $113B, $31.6B NI, $19.01 EPS, 33x, PEG 0.65 2029: $158B, $47.3B NI, $28.51 EPS, 22x, PEG 0.44 2030: $221B, $70.7B NI, $42.58 EPS, 15x, PEG 0.29 2031: $309B, $102B NI, $61.48 EPS, 10x, PEG 0.21

2. 50% revenue CAGR 2026: $57.5B, $13.8B NI, $8.31 EPS, 76x 2027: $86.2B, $23.3B NI, $14.03 EPS, 45x, PEG 0.65 2028: $129B, $38.8B NI, $23.38 EPS, 27x, PEG 0.40 2029: $194B, $62.1B NI, $37.41 EPS, 17x, PEG 0.26 2030: $291B, $99.0B NI, $59.62 EPS, 11x, PEG 0.17 2031: $437B, $153B NI, $92.06 EPS, 7x, PEG 0.11

3. 60% revenue CAGR 2026: $57.5B, $13.8B NI, $8.31 EPS, 76x 2027: $92.0B, $25.8B NI, $15.52 EPS, 41x, PEG 0.47 2028: $147B, $45.6B NI, $27.49 EPS, 23x, PEG 0.28 2029: $236B, $77.7B NI, $46.82 EPS, 13x, PEG 0.17 2030: $377B, $132B NI, $79.45 EPS, 8x, PEG 0.10 2031: $603B, $217B NI, $130.76 EPS, 5x, PEG 0.07

=> 3 year PEG (2028) 40% 0.65 / 50% 0.40 / 60% 0.28

=>5 year PEG (2030) 40% 0.29 / 50% 0.17 / 60% 0.10

AMD may look like at a premium with TTM, but we are only more than a month away from Q3 Nov ER, where Q4, the first biggest J-curve quarter guidance will be issued.

Analysts, Investors and Institutions are fighting on where Q4 guidance is going to land. Otherwise if "they" just strictly judging AMD on TTM, AMD would just trade in the $300-$400 range at most.

I do not believe in outdated/old(TTM) data, market is forward looking. You may be able to buy stocks at a discount in businesses that have declining revenue/profitability or slower growth, but most will not get to buy high quality businesses when growth is ACCELERATING! Get it?

Not Financial Advice! DYOR! I do own AMD shares! https://x.com/MikeLongTerm/status/2104279602633883691

## @Remzztrades (Remz) · 09-27 22:40 · ♥36 ↻3 💬6 $SKHY

What I love about a setup like this is that no one can predict the magnitude of a blue-sky breakout once it gets going.

Closely watching this week for a re-entry around $195.

As mentioned before, Micron earnings will be a major catalyst for memory names. With this pushing toward $200, the setup is there for an explosive breakout if the market wants another leg higher in chips.

Above $200, things could get interesting very quickly. https://x.com/Remzztrades/status/2104340305369767946