# chip earnings — X 热门讨论 (2026-10-09 05:19 UTC)

## @rogueiq (CK) · 10-08 14:59 · ♥50 ↻5 💬4 Two legendary investors just said the AI bubble is close to popping

Ray Dalio: AI is a "classic bubble." "I think we're close to that."

Michael Burry: "The bubble in AI may burst sooner than later."

Meanwhile, the market disagrees and keeps going for ATHs

Who's right?

Nobody knows. Not Dalio. Not Burry. Not the guy on X with his charts. Certainly not CNBC's "experts."

The good news: you don't need to predict. You need to be positioned.

3 shifts that helped me a ton, after plenty of mistakes:

1. Stop predicting.

Be positioned so a burst doesn't break you, and a continued rise keeps you in without FOMO.

2. Spread your AI bets.

Know what gets hit hardest vs least, then pick what you want to own:

Hit hardest - Story stocks with no earnings underneath (pre-revenue AI, quantum, small-cap "AI pivots") - Companies borrowing against GPUs that age out in a few years, with one or two big customers - Commodity parts like memory chips, sitting at record margins right now - Gear sold project by project (optical, cooling, power equipment). Orders vanish when builds pause

Hit hard, but survive - AI chip designers. Hugely profitable, but most revenue rides on AI spending. Nvidia fell about two-thirds in 2022 - Networking gear and data center landlords

Hold up best - Chip equipment monopolies and grid equipment, where AI is part of the demand, not all of it - The one foundry every chip has to go through - Big platforms funding AI from cash (cloud, ads, software). For these, AI is a cost they can cut, not their revenue - Regulated utilities. Regulated returns, AI is the bonus

3. Think long term.

Staying in the game is what gets you to your money goals.

What lasts owns its own customers, has a cash engine outside AI, sits at a chokepoint, or earns regulated returns.

What gets wiped out carries debt against a fast-aging asset, sells a commodity, or depends on a couple of customers who aren't profitable yet.

You don't need to know when it pops.

You only need to know what you own if it does. https://x.com/rogueiq/status/2108210803941707886