# HBM demand — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-29 09:51 UTC)
## @MentoviaX (MentoviaX) · 09-29 04:46 · ♥37 ↻1 💬2 $MU Micron reports Wednesday after market close. Here are earnings preview and trading scenarios:
Street sits at $31.30 EPS on $50.6B revenue, essentially the company’s guide of $31.00 ±$1.00 on $50.0B ±$1.0B with ~86% gross margin. Options price an 11% move. Michael Burry now in panic mode replacing his huge short positions with less sizable put positions.
Positioning context: an 11% implied move on this revenue base tells you the options market agrees this is binary. Put skew has been bid since Burry’s disclosure, with open interest stacked at the 10% out-of-the-money strikes expiring Friday.
Crowded short plus beat-and-raise is a squeeze; crowded long plus tempered guide is a rug pull. Know which crowd you are in before Wednesday close.
THREE scenarios:
1. “Beat and Raise” — 60% probability.
MU prints $34.20 EPS on $53.1B revenue with gross margin expanding to 87.5%. DRAM contract pricing up 8% sequentially, HBM4 qualification ramping ahead of plan, and data-center revenue now 55% of the mix. Management guides FQ1 to $34–$36 EPS and raises FY27 capex to $22B — a demand signal, not a supply warning.
Stock: +12% to +15%. The short thesis dies on the print, with shorty covering accelerates the move.
Key tell: any quantified AI-accelerator memory backlog extending into 2027.
2. “Beat, Then Tempered Guide” — 30% probability.
MU clears the bar modestly: $32.50 EPS on $51.4B revenue, margins flat at 86%. The beat comes from NAND recovery, not DRAM acceleration. But FQ1 guidance lands at $30–$32, under the $33 whisper, with management citing “normal seasonal inventory digestion” among smartphone OEMs, or supply chain bottleneck.
Stock: flat to -5% initially, with direction set by the call’s tone on December-quarter DRAM contract pricing. This is the consensus trap — good quarter, bad narrative.
3. “The Cycle Turns” — 10% probability.
MU misses: $28-29 EPS on $48.6B revenue, gross margin slipping to 83%. The culprit is Chinese DRAM capacity (CXMT) flooding legacy nodes, dragging blended ASPs down 6%, while enterprise SSD demand pauses ahead of platform transitions. FQ1 guide gets cut to $26–$28.
Stock: -10% to -12%, and Burry’s short bet becomes the cover story. The structural bull case — HBM, the new 512GB DDR5 module — survives intact, but the multiple compresses as the market reprices 2027 EPS from $120 down to $95.
What I will be watching on the call:
1. DRAM contract pricing commentary for the December quarter. 2. HBM revenue run-rate disclosure. 3. Inventory days — anything above 140 is the bears' smoking gun. 4. Capex discipline versus capacity additions.
Base case is Scenario 2. The quarter clears the bar; the guide sets the stock. But I honestly feel Scenario 1 is more likely to happen.
For traders, using ETF maybe a better way to balance between risks and rewards.
(BIASED PERSONAL OPINION. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. I AM BULLISH AND LONG ON MICRON.) https://x.com/MentoviaX/status/2104794984880676892
## @LIWEI_TWCapital (LIWEI_TW Capital) · 09-28 13:04 · ♥31 ↻1 💬0 Testing, Testing, Testing — Part II: FormFactor https://x.com/LIWEI_TWCapital/status/2104557978414399667