# hyperscaler capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-10-08 13:32 UTC)
## @ShanuMathew93 (Shanu Mathew) · 10-08 11:42 · ♥38 ↻2 💬6 Gigabrains help me out:
GS puts required annual hyperscale AI revenue at $526bn, based on average annual capex across 2026 and 2027 and a 20% hyperscaler ROIC.
I assume OpenAI and Anthropic have similar ARR, GW capacity and inference share, with $20bn of revenue per blended GW and $50bn per monetized GW (40% of capacity monetized).
Today, combined ARR is ~$75bn on 3.5-4GW, or ~$20bn per GW for Ant (OAI is close to $70bn now so lets just assume the same for both). Each lab goes from ~2GW to 5GW by YE26 and 10GW by YE27.
>YE26: 5GW x $20bn = $100bn per lab. The monetized route agrees: 40% x 5GW = 2GW x $50bn = $100bn. >YE27: 10GW x $20bn = $200bn per lab (4GW monetized x $50bn).
Two labs at YE27 give $400bn of implied lab ARR. That leaves ~$126bn of the $526bn for everyone else: non-lab hyperscaler revenue, agentic software, Muse/Instinct, other labs, routers and harness companies. Attainable or not? That all assumes pricing and revenue per GW don't come down as well for the labs.
Am I thinking about this right? Feel free to critique/debate anything I laid out @JaredKubin @azeem @GavinSBaker @WarrenPies @FredaDuan @altcap @_clarktang @TBU12345678 @TMTLongShort @zephyr_z9 https://x.com/ShanuMathew93/status/2108160986087559545