# AI capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-22 03:51 UTC)

## @GreatMattsby (The Great Mattsby) · 09-21 16:26 · ♥97 ↻8 💬4 Anyone calling economic collapse or a classic blow-off top is still modeling the old economy.

Valuations are stretched. Margin debt spiked. CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings ratio) is historically extreme. Bonds are selling off. Oil is elevated. Those signals mattered in 2000 and 2008 because the underlying growth engine was not being rewritten in real time.

This cycle is different. AI is already accounting for a large share of recent GDP growth, lifting measured productivity, and compounding at the task level across knowledge work, science, software, and operations. The capex is enormous because the technology is general-purpose, not a single-use asset like housing or a frothy website.

A blow-off can still happen in prices. Liquidity can tighten. A sharp drawdown is always possible when positioning is crowded. That is not the same thing as the economic thesis breaking.

Underestimating AI here is the same error as treating electricity, semiconductors, or the internet as a late-cycle fad instead of a new production function. The short-term tape can look like 2000. The long-term capacity of the economy does not.

Trade the volatility if you want. Do not confuse a market correction with the end of the productivity wave.

Bull market has years left IMO https://x.com/GreatMattsby/status/2102071899387818156

## @alphaticaio (Alphatica) · 09-21 17:10 · ♥33 ↻5 💬5 The Fed hiked last week. The important part came Monday, from Goolsbee, and almost nobody caught it.

He said the AI buildout, data centers included, could be "spilling out of its own lane and raising aggregate output beyond what the economy can absorb." Read that again. A Fed official just floated that AI capex might be a source of demand overheating.

That matters because of how the Fed treats inflation. Supply shocks, drought, war, oil, it looks through. Demand overheating it hikes into, hard. If the AI buildout crosses from one to the other, the capex boom stops being the market's tailwind and becomes the Fed's target.

He also buried transitory. His words: assume supply shocks are persistent now, not temporary. And he used the word every central banker avoids. Stagflation. The only way out, he said, is "the hard way."

Services inflation ticked up to 0.3% in August. He's watching composition, not the headline. So should you.

The hike was priced. This wasn't. The AI trade's biggest new risk is that the Fed decides the buildout is the thing overheating the economy.

$SPY $QQQ https://x.com/alphaticaio/status/2102082987655315487

## @Shashank1171 (Shashank Dogra) · 09-21 08:53 · ♥31 ↻2 💬4 What has better terminal value? Capex on Oil or capex on AI? O&G capex might look attractive as the oil prices inch up but an investor's eye must be on how fast the renewable/nuclear capacity comes up to make the O&G capex a low IRR project. So for short term #Maninds can outperform better if Saudi orders come in, but real long term institutional positioning will be towards #Welcorp which has both O&G and AI/DC tailwinds. > 引用 @Heartlipdin1008: @Shashank1171 From here who among the two welcop or man Ind can outperform. ?? I believe if man gets a big order and sustain margin as per q1 it can just still fly what’s your thoughts https://x.com/Shashank1171/status/2101957866013819273

## @TheTranscript_ (The Transcript) · 09-21 17:25 · ♥31 ↻3 💬1 Who said AI capex has no ROI? > 引用 @BasedDaedalus: sam killed it ngl https://t.co/EEBtHbOgpS https://x.com/TheTranscript_/status/2102086880221106388

## @tenderizzation (tender) · 09-21 15:09 · ♥30 ↻0 💬2 2027: overwhelming public anti-ai sentiment leads to the passing of extremely harsh copyright infringement laws targeting pre/posttraining but covering the entire ai stack and business model

2028: meta open sources a fully ai-driven sota end-to-end software engineer, torch IC (individual contributor), hosting it under pytorch/torchic in line with existing convention

nintendo sues immediately. and wins, with the new penalties immediately bankrupting meta and triggering a cascade of financial insolvency as the circular ai capex economy completely unwinds. the nintendo switch 3 is announced at a price of $20 as gpu prices go negative with decommissioned datacenter hardware flooding the market. the singularity is cancelled > 引用 @_vatsadev: Conflicted on blaziken vs sceptile for emerald, both are really cool

might do torchic for regular emerald and Mega Sceptile in Elite redux instead https://x.com/tenderizzation/status/2102052681934327896