# AI capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-29 19:08 UTC)
## @DariusDale42 (Darius Dale) · 09-29 18:40 · ♥50 ↻6 💬9 RE: AI: IT WOULD BEHOOVE YOU TO STOP WHAT YOU ARE DOING AND READ THIS:
1. It is a disturbing sign of the times when a company that claims its product may trigger human extinction gets to raise many billions of dollars of capital from bag-holding retail investors at what may be a trillion-dollar-plus valuation that only wealthy elite VC investors get to profit from. This may represent the clearest signal yet that corporate profits are the god of our society.
2. The "US vs. China AI race" is little more than a marketing campaign designed to tickle your amygdalae and scare you, via grave "national security" warnings, into allocating as much of your or your clients' life savings as possible to those who stand to gain the most power and/or profits from the AI capex bubble. @DavidSacks—Chair of the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology—confirmed as much in a recent @theallinpod episode:
“Speaking of the Dark Ages, so this is an interesting point from history. If you go back to the medieval time period, Chinese civilization was much more advanced than European civilization, and somewhere along the line it basically switched and the West basically took the lead. And some historians have pinpointed this to the decision of a single Chinese emperor to ban shipbuilding. What that allowed is the Europeans then basically colonized the whole world, and all the riches that flowed from that flowed back to Europe. And that's how Europe took the lead. And I think that if we were to do the Bernie Sanders thing, which is basically ban AI, it's like banning shipbuilding. Chinese civilization will rocket past us. They will be the ones that make all the discoveries and discover this new world and accrue all the wealth.”
3. If I’m wrong on #2, then I won’t be wrong on this: Your baseline assumption as an investor should be that China wins the "AI race." In our data-driven view, the odds of this potentially geopolitically destabilizing outcome are far greater than the odds of the US winning the "race"—however manufactured or real it may be.
Reminder: China's AI development has a structural advantage relative to US AI development when analyzed through the lens of STEM expertise. China's AI development also has a structural advantage relative to US AI development when analyzed through the dual lens of the cost of capital and the cost of tokens. China's AI development also has a structural advantage relative to US AI development when analyzed through the lens of energy. China's AI development also has a structural advantage relative to US AI development when analyzed through the lens of politics—which appears increasingly likely to slow the pace of US AI innovation and adoption. Additionally, China currently DOMINATES global critical minerals supply, at ~60% of mined production and ~90% of refined production. This is a trump card (pun intended) that China could use to effectively shut down a US military whose arsenal is being depleted via its latest round of "forever wars" in Ukraine and Iran.
Refer to our 9/21 and 9/23 Leadoff Morning Notes and our 9/26 Around the Horn webcast for more details.
I apologize in advance if any of this MATH or data-driven dot connecting offends the legacy NARRATIVES that you relied upon to underwrite the positions in your portfolio. My job is not to make you feel good. My job is to keep you and your family on the right side of market risk. Period.
Have a great day! —Skipper 💜 > 引用 @DariusDale42: WHAT MORON REGULATOR OR CORRUPT REGULATORY AUTHORITY WOULD ALLOW THIS COMPANY TO IPO??
CC @SECGov @DarioAmodei @AnthropicAI https://t.co/x1rDi4uZNb https://x.com/DariusDale42/status/2105004903533879722
## @RaoulGMI (Raoul Pal) · 09-29 18:32 · ♥50 ↻1 💬15 Energy is the binding constraint on AI. Everybody agrees on that. What people aren't realising is that energy is on its own exponential, and right now it isnt even the thing holding the buildout back.
The hyperscalers are forecast to spend around $600bn on capex this year, a buildout on the scale of the railroads. People look at that number and shout bubble. But they arent building on hope, theyre building against a backlog... there is more demand for this than there is infrastructure to serve it, and the capital to build it is abundant.
David and I dig into all of this every month in our research service, The Exponentialist... energy, AI, robotics and where it all converges. If you'd like to sign up to our Substack for free, and see what it's all about I'll drop the link below. https://x.com/RaoulGMI/status/2105002765499994207
## @SECTOR_RES0123 (SECTOR RESEARCH 💙) · 09-29 15:58 · ♥54 ↻2 💬3 Big positive
ESDS SOFTWARE: CO SEES SHARON AI GPU REVENUE FROM Q3 FY27, TARGETS ₹1,500 CRORE FY27 CAPEX AND 15-20% PAT MARGIN ON GPU DEALS, TARGETS ₹3,000 CRORE DOMESTIC ORDER BOOK WITH 30-40% CAGR🔥 https://x.com/SECTOR_RES0123/status/2104963923216871796
## @SECTOR_RES0123 (SECTOR RESEARCH 💙) · 09-29 16:01 · ♥32 ↻1 💬2 ESDS SOFTWARE
✅ AI GPU Revenue: Sharon AI GPU revenue expected to begin from Q3 FY27
✅ FY27 Capex: Company targets ₹1,500 crore in capital expenditure
✅ GPU Deals: Targets 15–20% PAT margin on GPU deals
✅ Domestic Order Book: Targets ₹3,000 crore domestic order book
✅ Growth Target: Aims for 30–40% CAGR in the domestic order book
#ESDSSoftware #AI #GPU #ArtificialIntelligence #TechStocks #StockMarket #IndianStocks https://x.com/SECTOR_RES0123/status/2104964900510662668
## @DhavalVJoshi (Dhaval Joshi) · 09-29 11:41 · ♥31 ↻2 💬0 The stock market is entirely dependent on near-vertical AI capex propping up near-vertical tech profit margins. So when that AI capex slows, as it eventually must, THE MARKET WILL FACE A HUGE PROBLEM. https://t.co/2tW30ttQpF https://x.com/DhavalVJoshi/status/2104899410207371579