# HBM demand — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-20 21:34 UTC)
## @TradexWhisperer (Trade Whisperer) · 09-20 20:55 · ♥32 ↻3 💬4 $MU $SKHY $DRAM HBM BIT DEMAND GROWTH (CITI)
+62% in 2027 +69% in 2028
An HBM bit eats about 3x the wafer capacity of a normal DRAM bit. So this curve pulls roughly 3x the fab capacity a commodity bit would.
We are never catching up. Are we? https://t.co/AUIwR9Cn2V > 引用 @TradexWhisperer: $MU $SKHY $DRAM Holy Structural Shit.
Citi Research says memory undersupply gets WORSE through 2031.
DRAM demand +30%/+35% (27/28) Supply only +19%/+22%
Already extremely short in 2026, now demand outruns supply for years.
Anyone without an LTA/SCA is about to feel the pain. https://t.co/S7uPcHgjLC https://x.com/TradexWhisperer/status/2101777383762346063
## @SemiconductorsX (Semiconductor Insider) · 09-20 03:57 · ♥30 ↻1 💬4 Goldman put a 490,000 won target on Samsung after sitting with management. That is almost twice the recent close.
The real point is not another memory upcycle. It is steering new DRAM wafers to HBM first. Each new HBM stack eats more silicon, so plain DRAM stays tight even as prices climb. Unfilled 2026 orders are already sliding into 2027.
Long contracts are longer and harder to break. That gives a view past next year. About 30 to 40% of output still sits for phones, PCs, and on-device AI. HBM demand is also eating into its 4nm foundry book. https://x.com/SemiconductorsX/status/2101521043370524878