# AI capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-30 02:14 UTC)
## @Balloon_Capital (🎈) · 09-30 01:03 · ♥58 ↻4 💬3 最近在想，如果有一个平行世界，没有美伊战争，美股会不会比今年走得更好？
说实话，想不出来！
但有一点线索，虽然国债收益率大涨，但主要贡献是short-term real rates expectations, 市场对通胀的预期和对Term premia的要求并没有显著增加。所以，看上去高企的国债收益率，更像是AI CapEx投资造成的，而不是战争。
你知道更绝的是什么吗？如果战争能尽快结束，今年因为油价造成的高物价成了基数，因为这基数效应，明年的通胀数据反而会异常漂亮。到时候美联储有了更大的空间降息，而企业的AI投资也会看到更多的利润……
你以为这样明年就太平了吗？当然不是，明年美国财政部还得解决它的发债问题，总不能天天发短债发一辈子吧😂
所以，世界是一个巨大的动态平衡，顺其自然或许才是最应该有的态度！ https://x.com/Balloon_Capital/status/2105101140924723206
## @decodejar (Decode) · 09-29 23:18 · ♥32 ↻0 💬9 The AI capex boom is real, but remember this is an arms race. You have no choice but to overspend, since the alternative is simply to lose. That's the dynamic that makes an overshoot inevitable, and it is the overshoot that becomes the bubble. We're probably in that bubble already, and the unwind will be severe, but I don't think stocks will top this year. https://x.com/decodejar/status/2105074820446896141
## @OnodaCapital (Hiroo Onoda) · 09-29 09:53 · ♥30 ↻0 💬5 There’s an extremely real bear case, which is capex earnings bubble requires non-coding AI use cases. It’s very hard to figure out. Doesn’t podcast well https://x.com/OnodaCapital/status/2104872293574803937