# AI capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-30 19:42 UTC)
## @EWTracker (Tracker) · 09-30 16:15 · ♥60 ↻4 💬6 Is Merger Uncertainty Holding Back $TSLA and $SPCX?
Is the market just waiting on a $TSLA / $SPCX deal — and parking both stocks until somebody says the quiet part out loud?
Short answer: yes, uncertainty is sitting on both names. Longer answer: it is not the whole story.
What we actually know:
No merger has been announced. No S-4. No exchange ratio.
What we do have is Elon leaving the door wide open. “Who can imagine what action one might take when there’s so much close collaboration.” On the Tesla earnings call it was the same idea: more and more overlap, but any merger or acquisition has to go through the appropriate process.
Some analysts have been throwing around 80% to 90% odds of a combination over the next year or two. Prediction markets have been a lot more conservative on pricing a 2026 announcement. Both can be true at the same time. High conviction that it happens eventually is not the same thing as high conviction that it happens next month.
This morning there was another small governance wrinkle: Tesla making it easier for retail to set standing voting instructions. That kind of change matters if a Tesla shareholder vote is ever required. SpaceXAI does not need one. Elon already controls that board. The stocks barely cared. $SPCX was a little green. $TSLA was red. That tells you the market is treating M&A as a medium-term possibility, not an imminent catalyst.
Where price actually is:
As of this morning, $SPCX is hanging around $149–$150. IPO was $135 on June 12. It ran toward $225, then gave most of that back. Still above the IPO price. Roughly a $2 trillion company.
$TSLA is in the high $340s to low $350s, off a 52-week high near $499. Call it a $1.4 trillion company. Down on the day while SpaceXAI is not.
That relative gap has widened since the IPO. That matters, because it changes the math of who is buying whom and how many new $SPCX shares get printed to do it.
If a deal happens, I expect it is more likely $SPCX acquires $TSLA than the other way around. So Tesla holders should be thinking in terms of a premium. And SpaceXAI holders should be thinking in terms of dilution. Those two facts can send the stocks in opposite directions even before anything is official.
Why “both stocks are suppressed by merger talk” is only half right:
Merger uncertainty is a real overhang.
$TSLA holders do not know if they get a premium, become a substitute index for SpaceX, or get absorbed into a vehicle Elon already votes. Some capital will sit on its hands until the terms are knowable.
$SPCX holders do not know how many shares they will issue, whether they inherit Tesla’s China exposure and auto cyclicality, or whether they are using an expensive stock as cheap currency. Lockup supply is already a problem. A giant stock deal on top of that is another problem.
If the market decides a merger is “next and soon,” $TSLA can start trading more like a SpaceX tracking stock instead of an auto-and-energy company. That is a real risk to price discovery.
So yes. The lack of a clean yes or no is keeping some buyers on the sidelines.
Tesla is still being graded on deliveries, margins, and how much it is spending to get to robotaxi, Cybercab, and Optimus. Delivery weeks have been sell-the-news events even when the print looks fine. Gross margin has been compressed. Capex is heavy. Cybercab is under regulator questions. The multiple is still extreme. That is a standalone story.
SpaceXAI has its own tape. Tiny float at the IPO. Staggered lockups dumping more supply into the market. Heavy AI spend after folding in xAI. Starship costs. A big bond raise. Insider selling. That combination explains the fade from $225 better than “maybe they buy TSLA instead of SPCX.”
$SPCX popped, unwound, and price is still currently above the IPO. That makes sense as post-IPO digestion plus float.
(Continued) 🧵 https://x.com/EWTracker/status/2105330655810736341
## @DyamondBre (Andrew Collins | Tech & AI) · 09-30 18:48 · ♥63 ↻4 💬1 The Pelosi family’s disclosed position may have been one of the catalysts behind this wave of attention.
$BE brought fresh interest to the data center power trade, and some of that momentum spilled over into liquid cooling. The celebrity effect may attract capital, but it is only the spark. What ultimately matters is whether the #AI power shortage can translate into real revenue and profits.
Some investors made money by following the trade, but it is easy to mistake an industry tailwind for personal skill.
The long-term outlook for AI power and liquid cooling remains attractive, and $VRT is one of the names I follow. Near-term expectations still need to turn into orders, revenue and cash flow. These companies should not be judged by the speed of the hottest AI stocks, and valuations could still come under pressure if hyperscaler CapEx slows.👇 > 引用 @LongGameEquity: 🚨 THE AI POWER BOOM IS JUST GETTING STARTED ⚡️
7 stocks positioned for the massive electricity demand AI could create: 🧵
1/ $CEG — Constellation Energy ⚛️
AI data centers need reliable 24/7 power.
Constellation is expanding its nuclear capacity to meet rising demand, including bringing the Crane plant back online for Microsoft’s AI ambitions. https://x.com/DyamondBre/status/2105369220166934723
## @byHeatherLong (Heather Long) · 09-30 18:35 · ♥34 ↻11 💬2 Important: Consumption is still the No. 1 driver of the US economy.
Last year this chart (left, from the great Neil Dutta @RenMacLLC) got a lot of attention. It showed the AI investment boom adding **more** to US GDP than consumption. That was short-lived.
Now we have more data (see chart on right). The picture is clearer: Consumption is still the biggest US GDP driver, but AI capex has added a lot of extra oomph (often close to a full percentage point)
Basically, the AI boom has pushed the economy in 2025 and 2026 from OK to strong. The problem? Not much of Main Street is feeling that extra oomph... https://x.com/byHeatherLong/status/2105365854091157749