# HBM demand — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-24 09:34 UTC)
## @glocalinvestor (Arvind Srinivas) · 09-23 12:38 · ♥41 ↻10 💬0 JPM issues their updated view on Memory market
Covered major memory debate & shared contrasting bullish and bearish scenarios along with its own view on the debate. Make sure to follow for more.
My Aim: Don't tell what to do. Help you decide what to do.. You can find my read at the end.
#1: Is AI Capex sustainable? - Bullish: AI business remains lucrative & hyperscalers find it not challenging to access more capital - Bearish: Slow business adoption resulting in low investments from hypescalers - JPM View: Robust hyperscaler investment. No slowdown in memory atleast until FY28.
#2: Is memory budget in AI capex sustainable? - Bullish: Indispensable. Memory burden justified to power compute & token gen. Ltd tech breakthrough. - Bearish: Memory share might move to pre-AI <10% levels. Optics, SRAM or non-HBM soln imminent. - JPM View: Leaning towards bullish scenarios. But expects milder ASP growth. Big enough Compute demand to bear reduced per compute memory
#3: Is HBM de-spec a danger? - Bullish: Content downgrade is to power installation growth. HBM mix in $DRAM continues to grow. - Bearish: Evidence of peaking HBM performance & fading economics. Demand reroute to conv. DRAM - JPM View: Negative to total HBM demand but not thesis breaking. HBM vs DRAM Bit demand shows HBM growing faster. Training demand for ~24 mths.
#4 Is LTA critical? - Bullish: Building structurally healthy customer-vendor relationship. Greater visibility for both - Bearish: Will fall apart during down-cycle. Caps incremental ceiling by limiting ASP increase. - JPM View: Bullish for memory. Accounts 70% of capacity implying CSPs desperation to secure memory. Reduced cyclicality of the industry
#5 Is China threat real? - Bullish: Capacity is real but still has tech gap which limits them from accessing entire market - Bearish: Caps the cycle the old fashioned way: Supply glut resulting in demand destruction. - JPM View: China is a structural threat and has to be closely monitored. Limited near-term risk due to technology gap.
My read: Memory is surely near term (FY27/28) story. Jury very much out whether the structural demand is sustainable or not. For now, I would keep accumulating Samsung / $SKHY / Kioxia / $MU and $SNDK
Key Catalysts: - Concrete LTA disclosure - Shareholder return - Memory S/D sufficiency - AI capex https://x.com/glocalinvestor/status/2102739361645129736