# AI capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-13 14:24 UTC)
## @saxena_puru (Puru Saxena) · 09-13 13:33 · ♥88 ↻14 💬9 Amodei, Altman and Musk agree they need to pace the frontier ie *slow* the rate of new capability so safety can catch up. This is not a halt.
Two drivers they cite: faster recursive self-improvement and agent breakouts (Hugging Face etc.).
Plan: embedded third-party evaluators (Anthropic now, OpenAI says it will follow), lab coordination and don’t gift the lead to China.
Motive: Is this being done for safety or as a competitive moat? Probably both. Closed labs can absorb auditors, regulatory oversight costs and gates. Open weights can’t recall a model once it’s out. Amodei says rules should hit the frontier harder than challengers. Skeptics say the opposite happens in practice.
Markets: Monday may see a knee-jerk reaction in chips and AI-stocks. That’s sentiment.
Thesis: largely unchanged. Pacing peak models ≠ stopping inference, AI agents or data centres. Demand is still tokens, power and clusters.
We’ll change our view if capex and GPU orders actually roll over - not because of a blogpost on the weekend. https://t.co/YKr5pL7G2c https://x.com/saxena_puru/status/2099129247088730188
## @lazyvillager1 (The Giver (Plumber)) · 09-13 13:03 · ♥33 ↻1 💬11 am I wrong in thinking that this dario tweet was extremely unexpected & for sure was not priced in going into this weekend?
he might just be talking down the book (altho what would be the purpose of doing so pre-IPO; the clear dissonance makes me think the intent was based on a moral/ethical compass rather than profitmaxxing)...
but seems to me this is the 1st time an AI thought leader has actually stirred the pot in not only refraining from being wanton in accelerating AI (the norm), but also very non-subtle in saying growth NEEDS to be rate-limited?
first order - a re-thinking on the following economics? i) does this entail a longer path to margin optimization? ii) does this entail a longer payback period on equitizing capex & repaying debt? iii) does this result in a delay on wherever the J-curve was supposed to saturate (max valuation based on promise of high FCFs)....eg. 2029 vs what is now 2031 (IDK I made up these years) https://x.com/lazyvillager1/status/2099121742975545650
## @apegogo3 (僕ちん（ローリスク投資・ユウジ）) · 09-13 13:28 · ♥32 ↻1 💬4 サム・アルトマンも「AIを慎重に進める」方向には同意しとる。
ただ、OpenAIが実際に「やる」と約束したのは、独立した第三者評価者を受け入れることや📝
GPU削減も、CAPEX削減も、学習停止も書いてへん。
しかも本人は「このテーマはOpenAI社内でここ数週間ずっと議論してきた」と明言しとる。
それで週末DEXのキオクシアは−6%超。
GPU止める話ちゃう。まず監査を強くする話や。 見出しが先に走りすぎやろ。 > 引用 @sama: I agree with Dario that we need to pace the frontier. This has been a primary topic of discussions we've had at OpenAI in recent weeks.
Committing to having independent evaluators with employee-like access is a great idea, and we will do the same. We'll have more to share soon. https://x.com/apegogo3/status/2099128203772371071
## @Sam_Badawi (Sam Badawi) · 09-13 11:49 · ♥32 ↻1 💬3 ORACLE LOOKS TOO CHEAP 🧵
I spent more time digging into $ORCL Oracle this weekend after what I thought were VERY strong Q1 FY2027 earnings, and I’m becoming more interested in adding to my long-term position. The stock is still being discounted because of AI customer concentration and massive CapEx requirements, but with $664B in RPO and OCI revenue growing 121% YoY to $7.4B, I think the risk/reward is becoming increasingly attractive.
I’ll break down the earnings, Larry Ellison sale situation, OpenAI risk, CapEx and why I’m looking to add more Oracle to the Solid Compounding Portfolio below. > 引用 @Sam_Badawi: LARRY ELLISON JUST MADE A MISTAKE
Steve and I come together to talk about $ORCL. With Oracle sitting on a massive $664B backlog and OCI revenue growing 121% YoY
Watch the full video on YouTube. Link in first reply.
Matt then joins us for the $SPCX SpaceX vs. $RKLB Rocket Lab debate and which one has the steeper S-curve. Hint, it’s Matt and me vs. Steve. Guess which ones each of us are long.
Finally, we talk macro, oil, rates, $AVGO, $QCOM, $MRVL, and continue solidifying the $UBER thesis. As always, just a great time talking markets.
@stevenfiorillo @RealMattMoney https://x.com/Sam_Badawi/status/2099103046219264099