semiconductor earnings · X 热门 · 2026-09-16 00:16 UTC

# semiconductor earnings — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-16 00:16 UTC)

## @JasonL_Capital (Jason Luongo) · 09-15 19:50 · ♥198 ↻18 💬25 You could buy 100 shares of $AVGO right now for about $33,957.

Or you could buy the $300 call expiring January 2028 for roughly $94, which is $9,410 for one contract.

That's leveraged exposure to 100 shares of Broadcom for about 72% less capital, with 493 days of runway.

Strike: $300 Expiration: January 21, 2028 Premium: about $94 per share Breakeven: $394, about 16% above where the stock trades today

$39.57 of that premium is already intrinsic value. You're paying about $54 in time value for 16 months.

If $AVGO hits $450 by expiration, the LEAP returns roughly 59% versus 33% on shares. If $AVGO gets back to its 52 week high of $495, the LEAP returns roughly 107% versus 46% on shares. If $AVGO hits $550, the LEAP returns roughly 166% versus 62% on shares.

Why I like the setup:

- AI semiconductor revenue was $16.7B last quarter, up 221%, with this quarter guided to $21.7B - Hock Tan said Broadcom has already secured the supply to double AI revenue to roughly $115B in 2027, with line of sight to $230B in 2028 - Anthropic is set to become the largest custom chip customer in 2027 with an incremental 10 gigawatts in 2028, and OpenAI is deploying over 5 gigawatts in 2028 - Free cash flow was $13.7B last quarter, 46% of revenue - The stock is 31% below its June high with the AI selloff, so you are buying the same growth at a lower entry - 493 days of runway covers five more earnings reports

The max you can lose on a LEAP is the entire premium you paid. In this case that's $9,410 per contract. Broadcom has already dropped 31% from its high in three months, and if it stays flat or keeps sliding this contract loses value every day. Only size this so you're comfortable losing all of it.

Note: LEAPs are one tool inside a broader portfolio. Owning shares is always the primary use of capital. This is a selective add-on for high conviction moments when conditions align.

NFA DYOR https://x.com/JasonL_Capital/status/2099948954591076858