# AI capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-10-08 23:20 UTC)
## @fchollet (François Chollet) · 10-08 21:37 · ♥220 ↻22 💬36 Most measures of AI progress closely fit an exponential over the 2023-2026 period. Meanwhile AI capex over the same period has been slightly super-exponential (i.e. the rate of growth itself is increasing).
So if you model AI as a system that takes as input external investment and outputs AI progress, that system has a slightly sub-linear response.
But super-exponential injection of *external* resources is not sustainable in the long-term. To achieve sustained exponential progress, the AI industry will need to achieve matching exponential profits -- it will need to close the resource loop. https://x.com/fchollet/status/2108310747080208781
## @BobEUnlimited (Bob Elliott) · 10-08 18:32 · ♥30 ↻1 💬4 @WarrenPies Those growth numbers feel big, but off a negligible base. Anthropic flat for months, Open AI ARR growth linear through much of the year at 4bln incremental / mo. Just so far from the trillions of ARR by 2030 needed to justify the current capex plans
https://t.co/0gn4Bwc8Pc > 引用 @BobEUnlimited: Cooling LLM Spend Timely data suggests paid models ARR growth slowing considerably in recent months. How will the needed $3tln/yr in revenue come by 2030 when linear growth (or worse) is happening at 120bln/yr? h/t @Silicon_Data
https://t.co/WtFsXAjiSP https://t.co/34IoGdPhrU https://x.com/BobEUnlimited/status/2108264251139784745
## @FinanceDirCFO (Alastair Thomson) · 10-08 07:43 · ♥30 ↻2 💬0 It's worth remembering that AI agents are fundamentally insecure and dangerous, built on garbage software, and trained by sociopaths.
But it's wonderful that the AI industry has spent $ trillions on capex to make fraud and theft easier for everyone...! > 引用 @tomfgoodwin: Out of nowhere Muse suggests I may want to pay an arborist $1225 , with one click, just because they sent me a proposal
I didn’t ask for ANY of this , I’ve barely used muse, and I’m one button away from sending money …it’s a wild design decision. Absolutely reckless https://t.co/tYSwSv5zLr https://x.com/FinanceDirCFO/status/2108100837331578952