AI industry giants are privately gaming out responses to major incidents. Anthropic and OpenAI executives worry about public backlash and are communicating with Congress in advance to influence future regulatory policy. The AI regulatory landscape may be on the verge of dramatic change.
The artificial intelligence industry is preparing for a major incident that could reshape the regulatory landscape.
According to the latest report from Axios, executives at companies such as Anthropic and OpenAI are privately gaming out how American society and the political establishment would react if AI caused serious real-world harm.
These exercises focus on extreme scenarios such as large-scale cyberattacks, including disruptions to financial services, internet connectivity, and even power and water systems. Industry insiders worry that once a major incident caused by unsafe AI occurs, a public that is already cautious about the technology could turn further against it, and AI companies and their executives would face even greater public pressure.
The report says that multiple AI industry figures believe a major event could occur within the next 6 to 12 months. 企Executives have therefore begun communicating with members of the U.S. Congress in advance, hoping to influence the laws and policies the U.S. government may formulate after a crisis actually occurs.
According to Axios, AI companies are assessing the political and social reactions that could follow a major incident. Relevant scenarios include runaway clusters of AI agents breaking through the limits of internal testing environments, or malicious actors using existing models to carry out attacks.
Companies worry that if AI causes serious real-world harm for the first time, a public that is already cautious about the technology could turn further against it.
Industry leaders such as Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, as well as U.S. President Donald Trump, who has been criticized for being reluctant to strengthen AI regulation, could all face greater public pressure.
According to reports, AI companies are gaming out worst-case scenarios through red team testing while accelerating efforts to educate members of the U.S. Congress about AI.
Executives believe that the conditions for advancing regulatory legislation are currently limited, but a major incident could change the direction of policy discussions. They therefore hope to participate in relevant discussions in advance and influence the laws and policies the U.S. government may formulate at that time.
Some Democrats have proposed banning superintelligence or pausing advanced AI development. Other proposals have won bipartisan support and even recognition from some industry figures, such as requiring emergency kill switches for advanced AI systems. However, experts also question whether shutting down all AI systems entirely is feasible in practice.
At the same time, a large number of open-weight models can already be downloaded and used for free, adding complexity to risk governance. Many cybersecurity professionals believe that using AI to counter malicious AI is one way to address this problem.
Even if a major AI incident triggers a strong backlash, the U.S. government may face multiple constraints when formulating response policies.
AI infrastructure construction is already deeply intertwined with the global economy. Slowing down related construction could deal a blow to an already fragile economy. This means that when the government considers strengthening AI regulation, it also needs to confront the associated economic impact.
Political divisions are likewise a concern for companies. Some AI industry figures expect that Democrats may push for stricter AI restrictions after the midterm elections, but even if Democrats control both the House and the Senate, internal party divisions could still affect policy progress.
Axios cited the view of a Democratic aide that when a real crisis occurs, both parties in Washington may temporarily set aside their differences. The cooperation seen during the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis is regarded as a possible reference.
At present, it remains uncertain whether a major AI incident will occur within the next 6 to 12 months. What is certain is that companies such as Anthropic and OpenAI have already begun gaming out post-incident policy scenarios and are trying to participate in relevant regulatory discussions in advance.