# AI capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-10-09 03:41 UTC)
## @bboczeng (勃勃OC) · 10-08 22:56 · ♥37 ↻3 💬16 其实美股现在真正的问题，无外乎如下两点：
1）半导体太集中，整个大盘是靠着AI Capex和半导体公司撑起来的；一荣俱荣，但是一损俱损
2）AI Capex可能变成人类历史上最大的一次投资错配。
头部公司为了竞争和生存，投资了远超未来所需要的硬件compute，而不是业务真实的需要。这一过程中，硬件公司是赚翻了，但一旦这些投资无法回收，债务无法偿还，将会引发一次大崩盘。
所以，发生一次大崩盘几乎是必然的，也是健康的。而这一切其实和AI的发展程度无关。
AI经济学其实有一个很大的问题，就是他是建立在这样的设想中：AI能取代人类，并且降本增效。
但企业既然选择AI的目的是降低成本（和用人相比），那AI创造的GDP，又如何能超过现在用人情况下的总GDP呢？
这不是通缩吗？怎么想，这都不符合经济学的事实
所以，全面拥抱AI后，整个产业为劳动所支出的总费用会不会增长，还真的是个很大的问号
如果换个角度，说AI提高效率能增加产出，但除Capex之外的收入不增加，产出被谁消化？AI多写了几万个feature，几十万个app，谁来用？谁会付费？
产业的性质没有变，产业的顾客没有增多，这不是就产能过剩吗？只不过从中国是制造业过剩，美国是服务业过剩
就算解决了新的问题，创造了新的需求，那么创造出来的这些需求，比如personal agent，帮你打电话，帮你找客服，帮你订餐等等提供便利的小事
足以涵盖几万亿的支出吗？
大语言模型以来的整个AI故事，可能本身就是一个梦。
一个满足包括马斯克在内四人帮走向火星的，
春秋大梦
谢谢大家 https://x.com/bboczeng/status/2108330640559268173
## @cmagurvinder (CMA Gurvinder Malhotra) · 10-08 12:56 · ♥31 ↻2 💬0 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗖𝗔𝗣𝗘𝗫 𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗠𝗘 — 𝟭𝟰 🏭
𝗘𝗠𝗨𝗗𝗛𝗥𝗔
CMP: ₹570 Market Cap: ₹4,713 Cr
A Bengaluru company known for digital signatures has quietly become asset-heavy.
Its gross block jumped from ₹527 Cr to ₹897 Cr in a single year.
But this isn't a factory.
It's servers, software and intellectual property.
🏭 𝗧𝗛𝗘 ₹𝟭𝟴𝟱 𝗖𝗥 𝗖𝗔𝗣𝗘𝗫
🔹 ₹74 Cr spent in FY24 🔹 ₹83 Cr spent in FY25 🔹 ₹185 Cr spent in FY26 🔹 Computers & servers rose from ₹289 Cr to ₹470 Cr 🔹 Software & IP rose from ₹125 Cr to ₹301 Cr 🔹 ₹47.6 Cr invested in new product development 🔹 ₹21.3 Cr invested in data centres and servers 🔹 New UAE data centre built for its regulated trust-services business 🔹 Borrowings of ₹29 Cr against ₹127 Cr net cash
eMudhra is a licensed certifying authority.
It issues digital certificates used to sign documents and secure machines.
The business operates in regulated markets, which increasingly requires local infrastructure.
Data centres already operate across New Jersey, Salt Lake City and Europe.
The UAE is now being added.
During the June quarter, eMudhra also won a large German data centre operator for its certificate lifecycle management platform.
📈 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗕𝗨𝗦𝗜𝗡𝗘𝗦𝗦 𝗜𝗦 𝗘𝗫𝗣𝗔𝗡𝗗𝗜𝗡𝗚
The transformation isn't limited to digital signatures.
The company has expanded into:
🔹 Europe through the Cryptas International acquisition 🔹 The US through TWO95 International 🔹 AI security through AI Cyber Forge 🔹 The Gulf through its UAE trust-services launch
It is also building its own technology stack.
₹60 Cr went into developing proprietary IP last year, while another ₹76 Cr went into acquiring IP.
💰 𝗖𝗔𝗣𝗘𝗫 𝗛𝗔𝗦 𝗦𝗨𝗥𝗚𝗘𝗗
FY24: ₹74 Cr FY25: ₹83 Cr FY26: ₹185 Cr
That's roughly 5× annual depreciation.
Free cash flow turned negative at −₹52 Cr as spending accelerated.
A further ₹110 Cr went into acquisitions, separate from the asset spend.
🎯 𝗪𝗛𝗔𝗧'𝗦 𝗡𝗘𝗫𝗧?
The next 12 months are about monetising the expansion:
🔹 Complete the UAE data centre and launch trust services 🔹 Turn Cryptas profitable — around ₹100 Cr of revenue that was loss-making 🔹 Sell the certificate lifecycle platform to more data centre operators 🔹 Expand the US footprint 🔹 Continue funding the five-platform product strategy
June-quarter revenue grew 28% to ₹192.5 Cr.
EBITDA rose 40%, with margin at 26.2%.
Management says its guidance remains unchanged.
📊 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗡𝗨𝗠𝗕𝗘𝗥𝗦
🏷️ 17% below its 52-week high of ₹688
Over the last 5 years:
40% Sales CAGR 43% Profit CAGR 13% ROE
The business has expanded from India into Europe, the US and the Gulf.
But there is a trade-off.
Operating margin has declined from 37% to 23% over four years as services and acquired businesses diluted the mix.
🔄 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗖𝗔𝗣𝗘𝗫 𝗦𝗧𝗢𝗥𝗬
The interesting part is the sequence:
𝗖𝗔𝗣𝗘𝗫 → 𝗗𝗔𝗧𝗔 𝗖𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗥𝗘𝗦 & 𝗣𝗥𝗢𝗗𝗨𝗖𝗧 𝗜𝗣 → 𝗥𝗘𝗚𝗨𝗟𝗔𝗧𝗘𝗗-𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗞𝗘𝗧 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 → 𝗥𝗘𝗖𝗨𝗥𝗥𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗧𝗥𝗨𝗦𝗧 𝗥𝗘𝗩𝗘𝗡𝗨𝗘 → 𝗣𝗢𝗧𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗜𝗔𝗟 𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗚𝗜𝗡 𝗜𝗠𝗣𝗥𝗢𝗩𝗘𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧
Unlike a traditional factory, much of this investment is already live and earning.
Only ₹29 Cr remains in unfinished projects, largely linked to the UAE data centre.
Now the focus shifts from building capacity to filling it.
𝗖𝗔𝗣𝗘𝗫 𝗖𝗬𝗖𝗟𝗘 → 𝗖𝗔𝗣𝗔𝗖𝗜𝗧𝗬 𝗨𝗧𝗜𝗟𝗜𝗦𝗔𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡 → 𝗕𝗨𝗦𝗜𝗡𝗘𝗦𝗦 𝗘𝗫𝗣𝗔𝗡𝗦𝗜𝗢𝗡
That's the part I'm tracking.
Educational purposes only. Not a buy/sell recommendation.
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𝗖𝗔𝗣𝗘𝗫 𝗧𝗛𝗘𝗠𝗘 — 𝟭𝟰
More companies from the CAPEX cycle coming next. https://x.com/cmagurvinder/status/2108179710480097513
## @dons_korea (DONS) · 10-08 18:29 · ♥30 ↻2 💬0 [ OpenAI 연환산 매출, 알려진 것보다 200억 달러 적어... AI 수요 기대에 의문 ]
파이낸셜타임스에 따르면 OpenAI는 최근 투자자들에게 9월 말 기준 연환산 매출이 500억 달러에 가깝다고 알렸다.
지난달 말 FT 등 언론이 투자자 자료를 근거로 보도한 700억 달러보다 200억 달러 적은 수치.
보도 직후 나스닥은 1% 넘게 떨어졌고 AI 관련주 전반이 약세를 보였다.
토큰화된 형태로 거래되는 OpenAI 주식 가격도 하락했다.
시장이 민감하게 반응한 이유는 OpenAI가 여러 기업과 맺은 계약 규모가 1조 5천억 달러에 이르기 때문이다.
반도체와 데이터센터, 클라우드 기업의 CAPEX 확대는 AI 수요가 공급을 웃돈다는 전제 위에 있다.
핵심 수요처인 OpenAI의 매출이 기대에 못 미치면 매출과 계약 규모의 차이는 더 커지고, 대규모 계약을 실제로 이행할 수 있을지에 대한 의문도 커진다.
다만 연환산 매출 500억 달러도 여전히 빠른 성장세.. 시장의 관심은 앞으로 OpenAI가 내놓을 해명과 매출 증가 속도로 옮겨갈 전망이다. https://x.com/dons_korea/status/2108263409901064347