# HBM demand — X 热门讨论 (2026-10-10 09:07 UTC)
## @PhotonCap (Photon Capital) · 10-10 05:49 · ♥31 ↻2 💬0 - Morgan Stanley identified testing as a key CPO manufacturing bottleneck on September 3.
- Integrating HBM, XPUs, and optical engines increases test complexity and automation requirements.
- At Morgan Stanley's March conference, the 2025 semiconductor test equipment market was estimated at ~$9B.
- $TER's CEO explained that higher HBM stack counts drive wafer-sort demand, while HBM4 increases post-stack testing requirements.
- $TER announced production deployment of Titan HP with integrated SLT and burn-in on October 6.
- $AEHR announced ~$6M in follow-on Sonoma orders for a next-generation AI processor on October 7.
> As AI chips become more valuable and packaging becomes more complex, known-good-die screening, yield management, and reliability testing become increasingly critical.
> Rising test CAPEX creates opportunities for $TER, $FORM, $COHU, and $AEHR, but actual upside depends on market share and customer adoption at each testing stage. > 引用 @PhotonCap: AI capex is moving downstream.
First GPUs. Then power. Now packaging and test.
The bottleneck keeps migrating. https://x.com/PhotonCap/status/2108797138574418109