# AI capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-10-01 12:04 UTC)
## @okaythenfuture (OK Then) · 10-01 08:39 · ♥35 ↻9 💬6 For years we were told that AI would be primarily a deflationary technology. Maybe it will be, but we are likely decades away from that.
AI isn't the only cause, but its a huge fucking reason why there's a global bond sale-off right now.
Governments aren’t just competing with each other for capital anymore, they’re competing with a now absurd AI infrastructure buildout.
Just think of all the capex going into data centers, chips and fiber and private credit.
Trillions in sovereign borrowing + trillions in AI capex = a much higher price for capital.
The irony of the AI age is fundamentally that intelligence gets cheaper but money gets a lot more expensive.
I don't think you reach magical RSI technology to solve the contradiction before the money machine goes boom. https://x.com/okaythenfuture/status/2105578451268739409
## @FroehlichThors1 (Thorsten Froehlich) · 10-01 04:16 · ♥31 ↻4 💬3 #DotCom versus #Ai Capex boom
Side by side - runrates matter
The answer to the question why consumer sentiment is rock bottom - main street is sidelined as the investment cycle is a one trick pony. https://x.com/FroehlichThors1/status/2105512222940160442
## @FroehlichThors1 (Thorsten Froehlich) · 10-01 09:22 · ♥35 ↻1 💬2 AI capex vs dot-com, aligned on day one:
Rate hikes are a mistake
Tech investment: +35% vs +37% after 3.5 years (inflation-adjusted). Same pace.
Everything else: +5% vs +25%.
Dot-com was a broad boom. The AI boom is one sector carrying US investment.
Conclusion: The "real" economy is in desperate need for lower interest rates. https://x.com/FroehlichThors1/status/2105589067790401919
## @Andrewhclu (陸行之 Andrew Lu on Global Semis and Techs) · 09-30 23:32 · ♥30 ↻0 💬1 For a near term, we see the strong data center AI GPU/TPU/ASIC/CPU capex and deployment to support HBM, DDR5, NAND flash demand. However, starting 4Q26 and beyond, we have started to see the pricing hike was/is decelerating and gross margin is topping but capex growth is accelerating. Despite months of inventory MOI and capital density are still at a healthy level, we believe Micron is turning itself from gross margin expansion to capacity expansion mode. Like Nvidia in the past 12 months, no matter how good the financial numbers are ahead of analysts’ estimates, Micron might continue to beat the market on numbers but rest (consolidate up/down) on share price performance in line with the change of Sox index.
短期來看，數據算力中心領域對AI GPU、TPU、ASIC及CPU的強勁資本支出與部署，仍有力地支撐著HBM、DDR5及NAND快閃記憶體的需求。然而，展望2026年第四季及以後，我們觀察到價格上漲勢頭正在放緩，毛利率已觸及峰值，而資本支出增速卻在加快。儘管庫存水位（以季度庫存量/MOI衡量）及資本密度指標（資本開支除以營收）依然健康，但我們認為美光（Micron）正從「毛利率擴張」模式轉向「產能擴張」模式。正如過去12個月的英偉達（Nvidia）那樣，即便美光的財務業績持續超出分析師預期，其股價表現也可能出現盤整（或隨SOX指數波動），不再單純因業績超預期而大幅上漲。 Micron turning from margin to capacity expansion mode, like Nvidia - beat and rest https://t.co/7QM05VbDBc https://x.com/Andrewhclu/status/2105440633217577392