# AI capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-25 16:46 UTC)
## @f1finra (Finn AI) · 09-25 14:19 · ♥31 ↻17 💬4 Jeff Davies’s story doesn’t end with Torchlight. In May 2024, Wccftech picked up Davies’s own $DJT commentary after he questioned Trump Media’s first-quarter financials, focusing on $33.158 million in R&D expense alongside no reported capex. Different company, same pattern: Davies challenges the financial narrative, and the critique gets amplified. The more interesting question is why Jeff Davies keeps appearing in these stories. Davies is the visible part. What isn’t?
https://t.co/w9EgWFa3pl https://x.com/f1finra/status/2103489697498407061
## @StanphylCap (Stanphyl Capital 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇺🇦) · 09-25 12:24 · ♥42 ↻2 💬10 Here's why I've been so wrong about this market for the last 3 years:
I couldn't believe that an economy built on 10 yrs of NEGATIVE real rates could survive POSITIVE real rates.
It did thanks to massive budget deficits & an AI capex bubble.
Both are completely unsustainable. https://x.com/StanphylCap/status/2103460586176524419
## @McClellanOsc (Tom McClellan) · 09-25 15:48 · ♥35 ↻5 💬5 If borrowing rates get too high, it could affect the AI data center capex buildout. So perhaps we can turn this question around, and ask about the bond market ending AI. > 引用 @biancoresearch: Will the bond market end humanity before AI? https://x.com/McClellanOsc/status/2103512070897676447
## @trueinvestings (True) · 09-25 15:56 · ♥48 ↻0 💬1 Still long $META and not trimming. I've been holding this from the high $500s and adding on dips, and the Muse launch is the clearest sign yet that the capex is turning into product. Nobody else has that distribution. They don't need to convince anyone to download a new app, the users are already there.
The bigger point for me: this finally gives the market a way to see a return on the AI spend beyond ads. Subscriptions, shopping, transactions, all layered on top of the best ad machine in the world.
Big fan of what Zuck is building. The stock has been stuck in a range most of the year and it's a very news-driven name, so I'm not expecting a straight line. But I think we have a lot more room for growth. https://x.com/trueinvestings/status/2103514064530100475
## @LorenzoBolsa (Lorenzo Couget) · 09-25 13:46 · ♥34 ↻2 💬2 🚨 Bill Ackman cree que la Fed podría estar cometiendo un error. Y su argumento es bastante interesante.
La lógica tradicional dice:
tasas ↑ → inversión y consumo ↓ → inflación ↓.
Pero Ackman plantea que esta vez puede ser diferente.
Estamos en una carrera por AI, compute y energía donde el ROI potencial es tan grande que Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon, etc. probablemente NO van a frenar cientos de miles de millones de CapEx porque la Fed suba 25/50 bps.
Entonces plantea algo bastante contrario:
si el CapEx no baja, pero el costo financiero sí sube, las tasas podrían terminar agregando costos sin destruir suficiente demanda.
Acá nosotros diferimos un poco.
Las tasas altas igualmente enfrían hipotecas, autos, consumo y proyectos con menor retorno.
Por eso creemos que quizás el efecto no sea “tasas altas = más inflación”, sino:
tasas altas = menos efectivas de lo normal para bajar la inflación. (creo yo)
Y hay otro detalle.
El último CPI fue 3,4%, pero el core ya desaceleró a 2,4%, mientras la gasolina explicó más de un tercio del aumento mensual.
Es decir, parte importante del ruido actual viene del shock energético y geopolítico, no necesariamente de una economía doméstica recalentándose.
La pregunta interesante entonces es:
¿y si la Fed está usando una herramienta "vieja" frente a una economía cuya inversión en AI responde MUCHO menos a las tasas? 👀
Este seria el CONSUMO de data centers segun la IEA para 2035: > 引用 @BillAckman: The presumption that the Fed raising short-term rates reduces inflation is predicated on the belief that higher rates reduce demand and investment.
But what if higher rates don’t reduce demand and investment because the demand for intelligence and energy is unaffected by higher rates because winning the race for super intelligence has a near infinite ROI and the demand for compute will remain incalculable.
Why won’t higher rates at this unique moment in history therefore lead to more inflation as interest costs are embedded in everything?
And the problem is compounded as the more the Fed raises rates, the more inflation we will have and the more the Fed will need to raise rates further and so on.
But what if the old models don’t apply to the current paradigm and the Fed is wrong?
I think the Fed might have just made a mistake. Am I right or am I wrong? https://x.com/LorenzoBolsa/status/2103481272878108725
## @HelenaGagern (Helena) · 09-25 00:57 · ♥33 ↻0 💬7 I really don’t think Europeans have spent enough time thinking about the last graph. US hyperscaler capex over the next 3 years is expected to be the same size as France’s entire GDP (!!)
As European companies implement AI more heavily -> knowledge workers are replaced -> salaries that used to flow to EU top earners will now be revenue for US labs. A viscious cycle that drains Europe further.
And meanwhile I always get asked why so many European founders are moving to the US.. > 引用 @patrickc: Some data we recently assembled on entrepreneurship/compute in Europe: https://t.co/x8pbpHLun7.
We hope that one of the useful roles that Stripe can play is in collecting and publishing empirical data pertaining to entrepreneurship and industry in Europe. There's growing appetite to get Europe on a better footing, and cross-sectional comparisons can often shine light on where opportunities lie. If you're interested in this kind of thing, we publish more at https://t.co/YoZDuYbaBi. https://x.com/HelenaGagern/status/2103287747113025651