# Bitcoin — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-21 03:39 UTC)
## @MMCrypto (MMCrypto) · 09-21 02:22 · ♥520 ↻21 💬47 Bitcoin weekly: If THIS will happen, we throw a party! https://t.co/M7QQwgOkf9 https://x.com/MMCrypto/status/2101859698278625398
## @JoeConsorti (Joe Consorti) · 09-21 01:12 · ♥380 ↻43 💬18 There it is.
Bitcoin closing above the 50-week moving average has historically had a 75% chance of marking the cycle low.
Apart from the COVID crash black swan, it has a 100% hit rate.
The bear is slain. Welcome (tentatively) to the bull market. https://t.co/BLcGhjCMpo > 引用 @intangiblecoins: 🟠 BTC CLOSES WEEK ABOVE 50-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE FOR FIRST TIME IN 45 WEEKS
regaining the 50w MA has historically served as strong confirmation that bear market lows are “in”
bitcoin is up 29% in 35 days https://t.co/HzKVUrxMVz https://x.com/JoeConsorti/status/2101842006729240696
## @Kalshi_Finance (Kalshi Finance) · 09-21 01:17 · ♥375 ↻14 💬13 BREAKING: Bitcoin has surged 31% since Jim Cramer said he was selling all his BTC https://x.com/Kalshi_Finance/status/2101843227724673416
## @pete_rizzo_ (The Bitcoin Historian) · 09-21 01:40 · ♥318 ↻31 💬15 BREAKING: #BITCOIN JUST CLOSED ABOVE ITS 50-WEEK MOVING PRICE AVERAGE FOR THE 1st TIME SINCE 2025
THE HIGHEST LEVEL SEEN IN OVER 10 MONTHS
WE ARE SO BACK 🚀 https://t.co/hdm4fvY5Tj https://x.com/pete_rizzo_/status/2101849084562682015
## @Sykodelic_ (Sykodelic 🔪) · 09-20 22:52 · ♥311 ↻29 💬16 It has led to the biggest moves we've ever seen.
This is every time the 50SMA has been reclaimed on TOTAL, from market bottoms.
It has never dropped afterwards.
It has always gone higher.
2020 is also on this list, but can't fit on the chart. It's the same situation though.
So the last 4, and only 4 times this has happened, every single time, it has gone much higher, without any downside, until much higher up.
This isn't my opinion, it is just the data.
Would it be smart to bet against this?
Any betting shop would give you absolutely terrible odds if you bet on this happening again, because it's highly likely it does.
The only outcome we have ever had from the 50SMA being reclaimed, is instantly higher.
I have no idea if it will do it again this time, but the odds are incredibly in that favour.
Don't fight the trend. > 引用 @Sykodelic_: The bear final boss is losing the fight.
There is 1 hour 45 minutes until the weekly close, and as things stand, without some big liquidation drop, the 50SMA is gonna be reclaimed.
For the first time since losing it in November 2025.
It sits at $78,803.
Every single time, without fail, when the 50SMA has been reclaimed, it has marked the start of Bitcoins largest pushes.
In addition, every single time it has been reclaimed, it has only moved higher.
Never has it been reclaimed, and the price retrace, at all, actually. Just look at the QT post i shared.
As I always say, none of this means that this time cannot be different. Things can always happen for the first time.
However, basing your thesis on something that has NEVER happened before, when there is very clear data of it NOT happening 4x already, is simply dumb.
Investing is about probabilities.
The probability is wayyyy in the bulls corner now.
A clean break of this level has always provided fast moves higher.
Let's see if this will be the same. https://x.com/Sykodelic_/status/2101806675686781178
## @MacroCRG (CRG) · 09-21 00:04 · ♥302 ↻9 💬16 what a beautiful weekly candle. bitcoin:native https://t.co/NJikqEONRV https://x.com/MacroCRG/status/2101824828973985948