# AI capex — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-19 00:17 UTC)
## @pmje73 (Paul Enright) · 09-18 20:25 · ♥38 ↻2 💬1 US GDP will grow roughly $2 trillion from 2025 to 2026. That’s roughly 31 to 33 trillion. Which is closer to 7 pct nominal and implies a deflator of over 4 to get to roughly 2.5%. Of that $2 trillion you can tie about $1 trillion to fiscal stimulus/tax changes and personal savings outflows. And about 400-500 bn to AI. Which means the rest is about 400-500. 4 growth on 27 probably needs to be 6-6.5 nominal which call it again 2 trillion. Next year there is $1 trillion alone in AI capex and if you get 400-600 non AI growth and no recurrence of the fiscal stimulus that means nominally you need about 400-600 AI related revenue to get to 4gdp. That seems way too low to justify the forecasted spend in 2028. GDP needs to be higher than 4 in 2027. > 引用 @elonmusk: My guess is that AI roughly doubles US GDP growth next year from ~2% to ~4%. Maybe even more. https://x.com/pmje73/status/2101045079087399263