# HBM demand — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-27 21:50 UTC)

## @MelvinInvests (Melvin) · 09-27 18:07 · ♥31 ↻4 💬4 How could you not be bullish on memory when customers want to sign 10 year supply deals?

Samsung says nearly every major customer is requesting multiyear supply agreements because they are worried future memory capacity will not be available when they need it.

The company has already completed agreements with five major data center customers and is close to finalizing deals with another five large AI customers and Samsung has already reportedly allocated roughly 70% of its memory production capacity to long term supply agreements running through 2031.

These are not weak reservations that customers can abandon without consequences.

The agreements include advance payments, purchase commitments, and price floors that protect Samsung if market prices decline and Samsung has already collected approximately one quarter of the deposits agreed under these contracts.

The contracts generally begin with five year terms and can be extended annually, which gives Samsung a continuously updated five year view of customer demand.

Daishin Securities believes Samsung is already discussing 2031 volumes while some customers are requesting contracts that could last as long as 10 years.

Customers do not try to reserve memory a decade in advance unless they believe future supply could become a strategic bottleneck.

Samsung’s improving technology makes the story even more important.

Daishin Securities expects the company to capture the largest share of the HBM market next year, helped by broader customer exposure, price increases and an early improvement in 1c DRAM yields to approximately 80%.

Higher yields mean Samsung can produce more working chips from the same amount of manufacturing capacity, lowering unit costs and improving margins.

Daishin expects Samsung to strengthen its 2027–2029 capital return policy through a combination of dividends and potential share repurchases.

This is why I think the memory cycle still has a lot more room to run and If you want to see exactly what I hold across across the broader memory trade and other key beneficiaries, check out my full portfolio below.

https://t.co/Hkywss4Ugh https://x.com/MelvinInvests/status/2104271656881729590