HBM demand · X 热门 · 2026-09-30 01:41 UTC

# HBM demand — X 热门讨论 (2026-09-30 01:41 UTC)

## @MilkRoadAI (Milk Road AI) · 09-29 13:57 · ♥37 ↻8 💬3 If you own Micron stock, You NEED to read this!

Wall Street is currently expecting roughly $51 billion in revenue and around $31.50 to $31.60 in adjusted EPS. I think Micron comes in higher. My estimate is around $52.2 billion in revenue, 87.5% gross margins and $33.00 in adjusted EPS. That would put my revenue estimate roughly $1.2 billion above the Street and EPS around 4% to 5% above consensus.

The reason I am comfortable being slightly above the Street is pretty simple. Memory pricing continues to remain extremely strong while supply is still struggling to keep up with demand. Micron originally guided for around $50 billion in revenue, 86% gross margins and $31.00 in EPS, so expectations have already moved meaningfully above management's original outlook. I think pricing has remained strong enough for Micron to come in above those expectations again. Gross margin is going to be one of the most important numbers for me. The Street is already looking for margins around 87%, which is insane when you think about where this business was just a few years ago. I am looking for around 87.5%. If Micron can continue growing revenue while keeping margins anywhere near these levels, the amount of earnings and free cash flow this company can produce becomes ridiculous.

DRAM is another big reason I am staying above consensus. AI infrastructure continues to become more memory intensive with every generation. Larger models, longer context windows, inference and eventually AI agents all require more memory alongside the compute. At the same time, customers are trying to lock up supply years in advance because they are worried future capacity will not be available when they need it.

This is also why the long term agreements are probably one of the most important things I will be listening for on the call. Last quarter Micron had signed 16 strategic customer agreements and I want to know how much that number has increased since then. Are we talking about 18 agreements now? 20? Even more? More importantly, I want to know whether the size and duration of these agreements are getting larger as customers become increasingly worried about securing enough memory. These agreements matter because they give Micron something the memory industry historically has not had much of, which is long term demand visibility. Memory has always been extremely cyclical because manufacturers usually do not know exactly what demand or pricing will look like several years into the future. If customers are now willing to commit to supply years in advance, provide deposits, agree to minimum purchases or accept pricing protections, Micron suddenly has much better visibility into future revenue and utilization.

I also want more detail around HBM because this is becoming an increasingly important part of the Micron thesis. The company has already started high volume HBM4 shipments for its lead customer and has sent qualification samples to additional customers. I want to know whether Micron is maintaining or gaining HBM market share as the industry moves from HBM3E into HBM4 and eventually HBM4E. If Micron can hold around 20% share or move even higher, it becomes an even bigger beneficiary of the AI infrastructure buildout.

HBM4E is another area I want management to talk about. I want to know when additional customers are expected to qualify the product, how much of 2027 HBM capacity is already committed and whether customization allows Micron to capture even better pricing. The more customized HBM becomes for specific AI accelerators, the harder it becomes to look at Micron as just another commodity memory company.

The most important part of the entire earnings report, though, is probably going to be next quarter guidance. The market already expects a monster fiscal Q4, so whether Micron reports $51.8 billion, $52 billion or $52.5 billion might not matter nearly as much as what management says comes next. I would personally like to see Micron guide toward roughly $58 billion in revenue next quarter, gross margins around 88% and EPS somewhere in the high $30s. If management gets anywhere near those numbers, that would tell me the memory pricing environment is still extremely strong heading into 2027.

The biggest risk I want addressed is supply. Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron and Chinese memory manufacturers are all investing heavily because the economics are so attractive right now. Eventually that capacity will come online (I personally believe it has no meaningful effect but I want the management to address the Chinese memory makers) .The real question is whether AI memory demand can continue growing faster than the industry can add supply. I want management to give us more clarity on 2027 DRAM supply growth, how quickly new fabs can actually contribute meaningful capacity and whether Chinese memory companies are starting to change the supply picture. If supply suddenly starts growing much faster than demand, pricing could turn very quickly, but right now I still think demand is winning.

I also want to hear more about capital returns. Micron is spending aggressively because it needs more capacity but if revenue and margins remain anywhere near current levels, the company should also generate an enormous amount of cash. At some point investors are going to start asking how much of that cash gets reinvested versus eventually being returned through buybacks or other capital returns. Overall, I am going into Wednesday expecting another beat. My numbers are around $52.2 billion in revenue, 87.5% gross margins and $33.00 in adjusted EPS, compared with the Street at roughly $51 billion and around $31.50 to $31.60 in EPS. But I am not going to make a prediction on whether the stock goes up or down after earnings because honestly that is basically a coin toss at this point. Micron has already had a massive run and expectations are extremely high. The company could beat the Street and still sell off if guidance does not clear the bar investors have built into the stock. It could also report numbers close to expectations and move higher if management gives an extremely bullish outlook for pricing, long term agreements and 2027 demand. That is why I care much more about what Micron actually tells us about the business than trying to guess how the stock trades the next morning.

If you enjoyed reading this and you want to see exactly how I’m positioned in Micron ahead of earnings and the rest of the memory names I hold, check out my portfolio below.

https://t.co/WtE7ibqvoU https://x.com/MilkRoadAI/status/2104933493629419699

## @HunterAllen4 (THE GAP FATHER) · 09-29 12:53 · ♥30 ↻0 💬17 FORM AEHR AMKR VIAV

200$ will come quick after this trend break. Don’t blink.

Everyone is busy betting on which GPU or CPU name will dominate the AI era.

I’m watching the physical bottleneck underneath all of it: advanced packaging + test.

More server CPUs and AI accelerators mean taller HBM stacks, larger chiplets, more I/O and increasingly complex packaging. That complexity doesn’t end at fabrication — it has to be tested.

That’s where FORM gets really interesting.

CPO doesn’t die on fabrication. It dies on optical test. Some photonic ICs can require 100+ seconds for full inspection, creating a serious HVM bottleneck.

FORM has already productized this through Pharos, with low-loss edge/grating coupling, AutoCal and DUT-specific FAUs integrated into TRITON its high-volume manufacturing platform with Advantest + TEL.

Insertion 1 is the key: identifying a known-good PIC before it gets bonded to an expensive EIC. FORM already owns that testing step. TSMC has qualified the platform, while Samsung is also running the tools.

And this is moving beyond a science project. CPO revenue started 2026 at a $10–20M target, then was raised and is now expected to come in significantly above $20M.

TRITON is increasingly moving from concentrated development projects toward production adoption across wafer fabs and fabless customers.

The beauty is FORM doesn’t need one optical architecture to win. CPO, NPO and even pluggable optics all increase optical-test complexity.

The station sells once, but the optical interface/probe content can monetize across wafer after wafer.

Meanwhile, FORM is already capacity constrained in its core business.

Farmers Branch begins production late 2026, volume builds through 2027, and the margin profile should improve as utilization scales into 2028.

So you have HBM getting more complex, GPU/custom ASIC testing ramping, CPO moving toward HVM and a company whose biggest near-term problem is increasingly having enough capacity to serve the demand.

That’s the part of FORM I think the market can still underestimate.

Very bullish. I’m long. > 引用 @HunterAllen4: $FORM

We’re down roughly 30% from the highs and sitting near a major technical support area. I think this is one of the most overlooked AI semiconductor infrastructure names.

A very good spot to think about a position soon even if we drop to 90$.

I really love this one long in Semis.

FormFactor is the global leader in advanced semiconductor probe cards, controlling an estimated 25-40% of the market and an even larger share in leading-edge MEMS probe technology.

Every advanced AI GPU, HBM stack, ASIC, and logic chip must be tested before packaging, making FormFactor a true picks-and-shovels company for the AI buildout.

The company sits in the middle of nearly every major semiconductor growth trend. It has deep exposure to SK Hynix, which recently represented about 29% of revenue and is the world’s leading HBM supplier, along with Micron and Samsung for advanced memory.

Those HBM stacks power AI accelerators from NVIDIA, AMD, and hyperscalers, while taller HBM4 stacks dramatically increase testing requirements and probe card demand.

On the logic side, FormFactor supports advanced manufacturing across TSMC, Intel, and Samsung Foundry while benefiting from AI GPU, custom ASIC, chiplet, and advanced packaging ramps.

Every generation of smaller nodes and more complex packaging increases test intensity, which directly benefits $FORM .

The next wave is already forming. FormFactor is expanding into co-packaged optics through its Triton platform alongside Advantest and Tokyo Electron as optical interconnect demand accelerates inside AI data centers.

They’re also one of the few companies supplying cryogenic wafer probing systems used by $IBM, $GOOG, and other quantum computing developers, giving them long-term optionality beyond traditional semiconductors.

Financially, the story continues to strengthen. Revenue is approaching a $1B annual run rate, gross margins are around 49% with a long-term goal of 55%, and management is targeting approximately $1.6B in revenue and about $5 non-GAAP EPS by 2030.

The biggest catalyst over the next 12-18 months is the new Texas manufacturing facility. As HBM, GPUs, advanced packaging, and photonics demand continue ramping, additional capacity removes a key bottleneck while creating meaningful operating leverage and margin expansion.

Technically, the stock has corrected nearly 30%, Bollinger Bands are approaching oversold territory, and price is sitting near an area that could become a higher low if buyers step in. If support fails, the 200-day moving average around the low $90s becomes the next major level.

This isn’t a flashy AI stock. It’s critical semiconductor infrastructure with exposure across $NVDA , $AMD, $SKHY, $TSM, $IBM, $INTC , $GOOG, $MU , advanced packaging, HBM, photonics, and quantum computing.

One of the highest-quality AI supply chain names trading well below its highs ahead of earnings. https://x.com/HunterAllen4/status/2104917459853554174