# HBM demand — X 热门讨论 (2026-10-01 12:37 UTC)
## @MilkRoadAI (Milk Road AI) · 09-30 14:17 · ♥30 ↻7 💬10 The Super Bowl of semiconductor earnings is here, $MU reports today.
Wall Street is looking for roughly $51.2 billion in revenue and $31.50- $31.60 in adjusted EPS for fiscal Q4 but I am slightly more bullish, projecting around $52.2 billion in revenue, 87.5% gross margins and $33 in EPS.
The quarter matters, but guidance matters much more. I want to see whether Micron can guide next quarter toward roughly $58 billion in revenue, margins near 88% and EPS in the high $30s. That would be another strong signal that the memory shortage and pricing cycle remain strong heading into 2027.
These are the the biggest questions I want answered.
Micron had signed 16 strategic agreements last quarter. How many more have been signed, are they getting larger or longer, and how much 2027 DRAM and HBM capacity is already committed?
How are HBM4 shipments and customer qualifications progressing? How much 2027 capacity is already sold, and what is the timeline for HBM4E?
Can demand continue growing faster than new capacity from Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix and Chinese manufacturers?
Pricing: Are customers still willing to lock in memory years in advance, and does Micron expect pricing to remain strong throughout 2027?
If free cash flow keeps growing, how much goes toward new fabs and advanced packaging versus eventually being returned through buybacks?
The bigger reason this report matters is the scale of memory demand ahead.
Nomura estimates memory demand tied to global data-center capex could increase from $107 billion in 2025 to $454 billion in 2026 and nearly $1.4 trillion by 2030 and the AI data center portion alone is forecast to grow from $106 billion in 2026 to $517 billion by 2030.
These are forecasts but they show how much memory could be required as models get larger and AI inference, agents and context windows continue scaling.
For the stock, simply beating this quarter is not enough because expectations are already extremely high.
The real test is whether Micron confirms that pricing, margins, customer commitments and AI memory demand remain strong throughout 2027. > 引用 @MilkRoadAI: If you own Micron stock, You NEED to read this!
Wall Street is currently expecting roughly $51 billion in revenue and around $31.50 to $31.60 in adjusted EPS. I think Micron comes in higher. My estimate is around $52.2 billion in revenue, 87.5% gross margins and $33.00 in adjusted EPS. That would put my revenue estimate roughly $1.2 billion above the Street and EPS around 4% to 5% above consensus.
The reason I am comfortable being slightly above the Street is pretty simple. Memory pricing continues to remain extremely strong while supply is still struggling to keep up with demand. Micron originally guided for around $50 billion in revenue, 86% gross margins and $31.00 in EPS, so expectations have already moved meaningfully above management's original outlook. I think pricing has remained strong enough for Micron to come in above those expectations again. Gross margin is going to be one of the most important numbers for me. The Street is already looking for margins around 87%, which is insane when you think about where this business was just a few years ago. I am looking for around 87.5%. If Micron can continue growing revenue while keeping margins anywhere near these levels, the amount of earnings and free cash flow this company can produce becomes ridiculous.
DRAM is another big reason I am staying above consensus. AI infrastructure continues to become more memory intensive with every generation. Larger models, longer context windows, inference and eventually AI agents all require more memory alongside the compute. At the same time, customers are trying to lock up supply years in advance because they are worried future capacity will not be available when they need it.
This is also why the long term agreements are probably one of the most important things I will be listening for on the call. Last quarter Micron had signed 16 strategic customer agreements and I want to know how much that number has increased since then. Are we talking about 18 agreements now? 20? Even more? More importantly, I want to know whether the size and duration of these agreements are getting larger as customers become increasingly worried about securing enough memory. These agreements matter because they give Micron something the memory industry historically has not had much of, which is long term demand visibility. Memory has always been extremely cyclical because manufacturers usually do not know exactly what demand or pricing will look like several years into the future. If customers are now willing to commit to supply years in advance, provide deposits, agree to minimum purchases or accept pricing protections, Micron suddenly has much better visibility into future revenue and utilization.
I also want more detail around HBM because this is becoming an increasingly important part of the Micron thesis. The company has already started high volume HBM4 shipments for its lead customer and has sent qualification samples to additional customers. I want to know whether Micron is maintaining or gaining HBM market share as the industry moves from HBM3E into HBM4 and eventually HBM4E. If Micron can hold around 20% share or move even higher, it becomes an even bigger beneficiary of the AI infrastructure buildout.
HBM4E is another area I want management to talk about. I want to know when additional customers are expected to qualify the product, how much of 2027 HBM capacity is already committed and whether customization allows Micron to capture even better pricing. The more customized HBM becomes for specific AI accelerators, the harder it becomes to look at Micron as just another commodity memory company.
The most important part of the entire earnings report, though, is probably going to be next quarter guidance. The market already expects a monster fiscal Q4, so whether Micron reports $51.8 billion, $52 billion or $52.5 billion might not matter nearly as much as what management says comes next. I would personally like to see Micron guide toward roughly $58 billion in revenue next quarter, gross margins around 88% and EPS somewhere in the high $30s. If management gets anywhere near those numbers, that would tell me the memory pricing environment is still extremely strong heading into 2027.
The biggest risk I want addressed is supply. Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron and Chinese memory manufacturers are all investing heavily because the economics are so attractive right now. Eventually that capacity will come online (I personally believe it has no meaningful effect but I want the management to address the Chinese memory makers) .The real question is whether AI memory demand can continue growing faster than the industry can add supply. I want management to give us more clarity on 2027 DRAM supply growth, how quickly new fabs can actually contribute meaningful capacity and whether Chinese memory companies are starting to change the supply picture. If supply suddenly starts growing much faster than demand, pricing could turn very quickly, but right now I still think demand is winning.
I also want to hear more about capital returns. Micron is spending aggressively because it needs more capacity but if revenue and margins remain anywhere near current levels, the company should also generate an enormous amount of cash. At some point investors are going to start asking how much of that cash gets reinvested versus eventually being returned through buybacks or other capital returns. Overall, I am going into Wednesday expecting another beat. My numbers are around $52.2 billion in revenue, 87.5% gross margins and $33.00 in adjusted EPS, compared with the Street at roughly $51 billion and around $31.50 to $31.60 in EPS. But I am not going to make a prediction on whether the stock goes up or down after earnings because honestly that is basically a coin toss at this point. Micron has already had a massive run and expectations are extremely high. The company could beat the Street and still sell off if guidance does not clear the bar investors have built into the stock. It could also report numbers close to expectations and move higher if management gives an extremely bullish outlook for pricing, long term agreements and 2027 demand. That is why I care much more about what Micron actually tells us about the business than trying to guess how the stock trades the next morning.
If you enjoyed reading this and you want to see exactly how I’m positioned in Micron ahead of earnings and the rest of the memory names I hold, check out my portfolio below.
https://t.co/WtE7ibqvoU https://x.com/MilkRoadAI/status/2105300968455983357
## @trendforce (TrendForce) · 10-01 08:17 · ♥33 ↻6 💬1 #Micron posted FQ4 revenue of $54.2 billion, up 31% QoQ. However, with contract prices rising from an already high base, sequential DRAM ASP growth eased to the high-teens percentage range. Meanwhile, Micron added 10 strategic customer agreements (SCAs), some extending to 2031. These SCAs are expected to account for over 35% of revenue through 2030, underscoring the company’s decisive pivot toward long-term contracts. #TrendForce believes the supply bottleneck remains structural amid AI-driven demand. Cleanroom shortages, rising HBM trade ratios and diminishing gains from node transitions continue to constrain output. With more than 75% of Micron's 2027 output already committed, supply is expected to remain tight in the year ahead. > 引用 @MicronTech: Today, Micron reported our Q4 FY26 financial results. Learn more: https://t.co/clDt35cWji https://t.co/dJcrfGiU90 https://x.com/trendforce/status/2105572716925653065
## @Andrewhclu (陸行之 Andrew Lu on Global Semis and Techs) · 09-30 23:32 · ♥30 ↻0 💬1 For a near term, we see the strong data center AI GPU/TPU/ASIC/CPU capex and deployment to support HBM, DDR5, NAND flash demand. However, starting 4Q26 and beyond, we have started to see the pricing hike was/is decelerating and gross margin is topping but capex growth is accelerating. Despite months of inventory MOI and capital density are still at a healthy level, we believe Micron is turning itself from gross margin expansion to capacity expansion mode. Like Nvidia in the past 12 months, no matter how good the financial numbers are ahead of analysts’ estimates, Micron might continue to beat the market on numbers but rest (consolidate up/down) on share price performance in line with the change of Sox index.
短期來看，數據算力中心領域對AI GPU、TPU、ASIC及CPU的強勁資本支出與部署，仍有力地支撐著HBM、DDR5及NAND快閃記憶體的需求。然而，展望2026年第四季及以後，我們觀察到價格上漲勢頭正在放緩，毛利率已觸及峰值，而資本支出增速卻在加快。儘管庫存水位（以季度庫存量/MOI衡量）及資本密度指標（資本開支除以營收）依然健康，但我們認為美光（Micron）正從「毛利率擴張」模式轉向「產能擴張」模式。正如過去12個月的英偉達（Nvidia）那樣，即便美光的財務業績持續超出分析師預期，其股價表現也可能出現盤整（或隨SOX指數波動），不再單純因業績超預期而大幅上漲。 Micron turning from margin to capacity expansion mode, like Nvidia - beat and rest https://t.co/7QM05VbDBc https://x.com/Andrewhclu/status/2105440633217577392